NHL Odds, Preview, Prediction: Avalanche vs Ducks (Saturday, December 2)
Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images. Pictured: Cale Makar.
Avalanche vs. Ducks Odds
| Avalanche Odds | -225 |
| Ducks Odds | +184 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -122 |
The Avalanche and Ducks are heading in different directions, with Anaheim losing its last eight games and Colorado having won seven of its past nine. Let's preview the upcoming contest to see if things are as one-sided as they appear and then offer a Ducks vs. Avalanche prediction.
There was a time earlier in the season when the Avalanche were showing weakness. They lost five of seven contests from Oct. 26-Nov. 11, and at the heart of that slump was Alexandar Georgiev, who posted a 5.04 GAA and an .832 save percentage in five games over that timeframe.
Georgiev has ended up being an unreliable netminder this season with a 2.89 GAA and an .897 save percentage in 19 contests, but if you look at his record (13-5-1), you'll see that Colorado has shown it can win as long as he is anything short of disastrous.
The Avalanche are 11-1-0 in games where Georgiev has surrendered three or fewer goals. They are even 2-2-1 in contests where he's given up four markers, so they don't need a lot from him.
Over his last six starts, he's been able to play well above the bare minimum, contributing a 2.36 GAA and a .912 save percentage. If that's the Georgiev who shows up Saturday, then Colorado has an extremely high chance of walking away with the win.
The team in front of him is just that good. Colorado ranks third offensively with 3.73 goals per game and has scored at a pace of 4.44 over their last nine outings.
Defenseman Cale Makar is the key to the the Avalanche's success. He has seven goals and 34 points in 22 games and he's backed up by forwards Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon and Valeri Nichushkin, who each have more than 20 points.
Going into Friday, there were 45 players in the NHL who had exceeded the 20-point milestone, so for four of them to play on the same team speaks to the power of the Avalanche.
When looking a bit deeper to see if there's any signs of weakness, we get more good news for the Avalanche. They're first in xGF with 86.61.
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In contrast to Colorado, the Ducks are 27th on offense with 2.74 goals per game and have scored at a pace of just 2.00 over their last eight contests. If you want to measure by xGF instead, the picture doesn't get much better; Anaheim ranks 22nd with 67.59, so perhaps the Ducks have had a bit of bad puck luck, but not enough to change how they should be viewed.
Anaheim's silver lining is Frank Vatrano, who's provided 14 goals and 22 points to lead the team's scoring race through 23 games. The 29-year-old is on pace to easily surpass his previous career high of 41 points. Sophomore Mason McTavish has been a similarly good story, going from a solid 43-point rookie campaign to 10 goals and 21 points in 23 outings this season.
Under other circumstances, the rise of those two forwards would be the complements Anaheim needed to take its game to the next level. However, the two who were supposed to be the team's centerpieces — Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry — haven't come through.
Zegras has just a goal and an assist through 12 games and hasn't played since Nov. 7 because of a lower-body injury. Meanwhile, Terry has gone from surpassing the 60-point milestone in his past two campaigns to recording just five goals and 13 points in 23 appearances this season.
The end result is that Vatrano and McTavish haven't gotten much support, which has in turn led to goaltender John Gibson not getting enough help. Gibson's 2.81 GAA and .906 save percentage in 16 games this season isn't that different than Georgiev's, but the Anaheim netminder has a 4-10-0 record. It's been so bad that even in games where Gibson has allowed just two goals, he doesn't have a winning record (2-3-0).
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Avalanche vs. Ducks
Betting Pick & Prediction
Colorado earned an 8-2 win over Anaheim on Nov. 15, which marked the start of the Ducks' collapse and came early in the Avalanche's rebound. Blowouts of that scale are rare, but with the gap between these teams, a decisive win by the Avalanche remains the most likely outcome on Saturday night.
Even with the spread being 1.5 goals in favor of Anaheim, Colorado looks like a safe pick on the puck line.
Pick: Avalanche puck line +110 (play down to +100)
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