Predators vs. Blackhawks Prediction: NHL Odds, Preview for Tuesday, December 5
David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Connor Bedard.
Predators vs. Blackhawks Odds
| Predators Odds | -188 |
| Blackhawks Odds | +155 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +108 / -132 |
Two Central Division squads trying to make names for themselves collide on Tuesday night as the Nashville Predators travel to take on the Chicago Blackhawks.
The Preds have been running hot lately, winning seven of their past nine and climbing back to the .500 mark on the season. Conversely, the Hawks have dropped three in a row and nine of their last 11 amid an off-ice scandal that has distracted from their current woes.
Still, Nashville has outperformed its current analytics, whereas the Blackhawks have seen a recent surge in their underlying metrics. That leaves a substantive edge in backing the underdog home side in this one.
Here’s a look at the odds, as well as my bettingprediction for Predators vs. Blackhawks.
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Nothing was going the Predators' way early this season. They opened the campaign with losses in 10 of their first 15 games, joining Chicago near the bottom of the standings.
At that point, progression was inevitable. Nashville wasn't as bad as its record implied, putting together decent analytics. Now, their metrics have fallen off, and it's time for the pendulum to start swinging the other way.
Over a stretch in which they've gone 4-2-0, the Preds have been outplayed in all but two of those outings while never being priced higher than -125 in the betting market. Both factors are condemning variables in a game where Nashville has jumped to -200 chalk.
First and foremost, Nashville's analytics are suffering. Its cumulative expected goals-for rating across that span has fallen to 49.8% at 5-on-5. Despite consistently getting outplayed, the Predators have seen a boost in their actual rating, jumping to 52.0%.
Moreover, the Preds' defensive zone integrity is crumbling as they've given up 11 or more high-danger chances in four of their previous six.
Secondly, we can't discount the betting market confidence, or lack thereof. Prior to tonight, the steepest moneyline price the Predators have been over the last two weeks is -125.
The Blackhawks may be an inferior opponent, but jumping the Predators up to -200 after a spell in which they have been priced mostly as pick'ems on home ice is ill-advised — particularly when we factor in that they are playing on the road and for the third time in four nights.
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Chicago's current controversy has distracted from improved play on the ice and may be a factor forcing current bettors seeking refuge in the Predators.
We're not letting that deter us from making a play on the hosts, though. The Hawks have asserted themselves over their recent sample, which should eventually translate to improved results. We're betting that happens at the United Center on Tuesday night.
The Blackhawks have posted an expected goals-for percentage above 50.0% in three of their past four, tilting the ice in their favor. Most impressively, this surge in their metrics has come while they've played all but one of those games on the road against playoff-caliber opponents.
Playing on home ice gives Chicago the best chance of building off those performances and snapping its losing streak.
As is typically the case, especially with young teams like the Blackhawks, home ice has been a sanctuary. Chicago has wins in two of its last three as the hosts, with improved underlying metrics. So far this season, the Hawks have a disappointing 43.2% expected goals-for rating; however, that benchmark jumps to 45.6% over their last four home games.
Although modest, that difference illustrates a young team that is finding its footing in their friendly confines.
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Predators vs. Blackhawks
Betting Pick & Prediction
We have to be choosy on when to back a young Hawks squad this season, but Tuesday is one of those scenarios. It's not reflected in their results yet, but the Blackhawks are playing a more resilient brand of hockey and are modest progression candidates.
The opposite is true for the Predators, whose metrics have deteriorated amid a recent winning streak. Moreover, the boost in their betting price against the Hawks is contraindicated compared to their more recent games.
All things considered, we're taking a stake on the home side, backing the Blackhawks as home underdogs at +150 or better.
Pick: Blackhawks +165 (Bet365)
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