Stars vs Flames Prediction: NHL Odds, Preview for Thursday, November 30
Sam Hodde/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Steel #18 of the Dallas Stars with Dennis Gilbert #48 and Jacob Markstrom #25 of the Calgary Flames
Stars vs. Flames Odds
| Stars Odds | -122 |
| Flames Odds | +102 |
| Over / Under | 6.5 +100 / -122 |
For the second time in less than a week, the Dallas Stars will take to the ice against the Calgary Flames. This time, in Wild Rose country.
In the first meeting, the Flames had an uncharacteristic offensive outbreak and scored seven goals against their Central Division counterparts.
More impressively, six of those tallies came at 5-on-5. For context, Calgary managed a combined five goals at 5-on-5 in the four other games since Nov. 20.
On Thursday, the Flames are tasked with breaking through the Stars defensive shell once more – a task most other bettors are wagering won't happen twice in one week.
Here's a look at the NHLodds for Stars vs. Flames and my prediction with three betting angles for the clash.
The Stars remain one of the best defensive teams across the league.
Through 20 games this season, Dallas has allowed the third-fewest scoring and second-fewest high-danger opportunities. On average, they're holding opponents to just 19.3 and 7.9 chances, respectively.
Somehow, they've ratcheted that standard even tighter over their recent sample with five of their last eight opponents mustering six or fewer quality chances and 14 or fewer scoring opportunities.
Stars netminder Jake Oettinger has been better than most this season. The fourth-year pro has a sturdy 91.6% save percentage and 2.53 goals against average, putting him top 10 in both categories among all goalies with at least 10 starts.
Moreover, we've seen improved metrics from Oettinger over the Stars' recent schedule. He's coming off a 27-save shutout against the Winnipeg Jets, which was the second time in three games that he posted a save percentage above 92.2%.
That improved defensive efficiency comes on the heels of amplified offensive production. The Stars have recorded 10 or more high-danger chances in five of their past seven, getting out-chanced just twice over that stretch.
Predictably, this has yielded more robust scoring. Dallas has totaled 27 goals over that same seven-game sample for an average of 3.9 goals per game.
The increased output appears to be coming from a more sustainable place, suggesting that Dallas' run could continue against the Flames.
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Calgary has a few signature wins over the past couple of weeks.
More recently, the Flames dispatched the division-leading Vegas Golden Knights by scoring in the waning minutes of overtime to secure the victory. Likewise, they secured victories over the Stars and Seattle Kraken, moving them into the playoff conversation.
However, those wins are coming from an unsustainable place, implying the Flames' string of fortunate outcomes could be coming to an end.
One of the more concerning trends is Calgary's inability to generate any meaningful offense. The Flames have yet to out-chance an opponent in high-danger chances across that five-game sample, and they've been limited to eight or fewer opportunities in three of five.
In reconciling production with output, you can appreciate the seven-goal outing as the anomaly it is.
Credit where credit is due: The Flames have tidied up their defensive structure in their own end. Calgary has held six of its last nine opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances for an average of 8.6 chances per game.
As expected, improved defensive efficiency is having a positive impact on the Flames' goaltending metrics. Calgary's team save percentage is up to 90.8% over its previous nine games, bringing their regular season average up to 88.9%.
Stars vs. Flames
Betting Pick & Prediction
Calgary might have the defensive structure to hamper the Stars, but they don't have the offensive capacity to keep pace. Consequently, there are a few different angles to approach this Western Conference battle.
First, we're expecting goals to be at a premium – with this one staying under 6. You could play this at 6.5, but you'll be paying extra juice because of it. Instead, we're taking under 6 at +100 at Caesars Sportsbook.
Secondly, the short price on a superior Stars squad in a classic revenge spot is too good to pass up. We're playing the Dallas moneyline at -130.
Lastly, with two solid defensive teams content to sit back rather than forcing the pace offensively, we're betting this one gets sorted out in overtime or a shootout. FanDuel Sportsbook is currently hanging the wager at a juicy +370.
The Picks: Under 6 (+100 at Caesars) | Stars Moneyline (-130 at FanDuel) | 60-Minute Tie (+370 at FanDuel)
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