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The Tampa Bay Lightning (6-2-0) and Vegas Golden Knights (8-2-0) will meet in the NHL tonight. Puck drop is set for 10:30 p.m. EDT at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Golden Knights are favored at -112 on the moneyline, with the Lightning at -108 to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 6.5 (+102o / -122u).
Let's get into our Lightning vs. Golden Knights predictions and NHL picks.
Lightning vs. Golden Knights Prediction
- Pick: Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point 1+ Point Each +135 (Bet365, Play to +125)
Our Tampa Bay vs. Vegas best bet is a prop pick on Jake Guentzel and Braden Point, with the best odds currently available at bet365. For all of your NHL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NHL odds page.
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Lightning vs Golden Knights Odds
| Lightning Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +225 | 6.5 102o / -122u | -108 |
| Golden Knights Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -275 | 6.5 102o / -122u | -112 |
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights puck line: Golden Knights +1.5 (-275 ), Lightning -1.5 (+225)
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights over/under: 6.5 (+102o / -122u)
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights moneyline: Lightning -108, Golden Knights -112
- Lightning vs. Golden Knights best bet: Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point 1+ Point Each +135
Lightning vs. Golden Knights Preview
Tampa Bay Lightning Preview
Following back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships in 2021 and 2022, head coach Jon Cooper's Tampa Bay Lightning have lost in the first round in four consecutive seasons, despite being perceived as a contender in each of those seasons. Another 100-point regular season won't be remotely surprising, but Tampa Bay still doesn't feel like an overly trendy pick due to the recent failures.
Lightning GM Julien BriseBois opted to pass on re-signing Darren Raddysh off a career season, betting that John Carlson was the more proven option at the same AAV and that young talents, including Charle-Edouard D'Astous, would thrive in bigger roles.
Based on Monday's practice, D'Astous is set to remain as the quarterback of the team's top power-play unit in Tuesday's matchup, which is highly notable from a fantasy and betting perspective. With a heavy, right-handed shot, Carlson seemed to be a very natural replacement for Raddysh, but as of now, Cooper seems to be going in another direction.
Cooper has also shuffled his top six fairly consistently once again this season, but for the time being it seems that it will be Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Nikita Kucherov on the top line, and Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Gage Goncalves on the second unit.
From an analytical perspective, the Lightning have once again been quite effective, as they have played to a 56.26% expected goal share at even strength and generated 4.15 xGF/60 across all strengths.
Perhaps the Lightning's biggest edge on paper in this matchup is 2025-26 Vezina Winner Andrei Vasilevskiy, though there's a strong case that he wasn't entirely worthy of the award last season and benefited from an excellent environment. Vasilevskiy holds a -0.4 GSAx and .886 save percentage in six appearances this season, but is yet to be confirmed as Tuesday's starter.
Vegas Golden Knights Preview
Similar to the Lightning, the Golden Knights feel to be one of the safer bets to enter the playoffs as a divisional seed and at least somewhat of a contender. The majority of last season's Stanley Cup Final roster is still in place, with Pavel Dorofeyev going as the most notable loss.
Young talents Trevor Connelly and Braeden Bowman could provide meaningful depth scoring in more consistent roles, while having William Karlsson healthy and in good form could also prove to be significant.
The Knights enter this matchup with a record of 8-2-0 and an eye-popping +18 goal differential. The one caveat to that is that they have played against a notably soft slate of opponents, as the Wild are the only potential contender that they have played, and they suffered a 4-2 loss.
Goaltending could be a potential concern for the Knights relative to other contenders, though Carter Hart caught fire for three rounds last postseason and was a major reason the team knocked off the Presidents' Trophy-winning Colorado Avalanche. Hart holds a +1.5 GSAx and .911 save percentage thus far this postseason and is expected to get the start.
Lightning vs Golden Knights Pick
Based on their dominant start to the season, the Knights will likely be the more popular side in this one, but the prices look fair to me with both rosters projecting to be similarly excellent. Tampa Bay is the best team that the Knights have faced thus far and is likely flying a little under the radar, playing out of the NHL's deepest division.
Vegas has allowed just 3.10 xGA/60 thus far, but it has faced plenty of low-quality offensive sides, and may be less stingy in Tuesday's difficult matchup. The duo of Point and Guentzel seems to be flying under the radar in being priced at +135 to each record at least one point, with the two linking up on an excellent second line and the Lightning's strong top power-play unit.
Best Bets: Jake Guentzel and Brayden Point 1+ Point Each (+135 — Bet365, Play to +125)
