The Washington Capitals (42-30-9) and Columbus Blue Jackets (40-29-12) will face off Tuesday, in what could be the final game of Alexander Ovechkin's Hall of Fame career. Puck drop is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Blue Jackets are priced at +175 to cover the puck-line (-1.5) with the over/under set at 6.5 (-110o /-110u). The Blue Jackets are a -150 favorite to win outright, while the Capitals are +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Capitals vs. Blue Jackets predictions and NHL picks.
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Odds, Pick
| Capitals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -230 | 6.5 -100o / -120u | +100 |
| Blue Jackets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 6.5 -100o / -120u | -120 |
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Spread: Blue Jackets -1.5 (+175), Capitals +1.5 (-210)
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Over/Under: 6.5 (-110o/-110u)
- Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Moneyline: Capitals +128, Blue Jackets -154
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Preview
Washington Capitals
The Capitals were officially eliminated from playoff contention Tuesday evening after the Philadelphia Flyers ultimately snuck by the Carolina Hurricanes with their tenth shootout win of the season. The Capitals hold a +18 goal differential and have managed 36 regulation wins and will go down as one of the better five-on-five teams in recent memory to fail to qualify for the postseason.
After trading away John Carlson at the trade deadline, the Capitals still managed a record of 11-5-2. Highly touted rookies Cole Hutson and Ilya Protas have made immediate impacts at the NHL level of late, leaving many Caps fans speculating if they could have snuck into the playoffs had the two been there all season, particularly about Protas, given that it was realistic for him to have been recalled earlier.
Despite being eliminated from playoff contention, Washington will remain well motivated to finish up the season with a win on Tuesday, given the possibility that this will be the last game of Ovechkin's career. While the team should have a regular level of urgency, top center Pierre-Luc Dubois has been announced as out, while third-string goaltender Clay Stevenson will start in goal.
As a result of Dubois' absence and the fact that Logan Thompson will not start in goal, the Capitals have moved from slight underdogs at +100 up to their current price of +128.
Stevenson has been respectable in a small sample of play at the NHL level this season, as he holds a +1.3 GSAx rating and 904 save percentage across three appearances. He's also played to a save percentage of .910 across 34 AHL appearances this season.
Justin Sourdif will bump into Dubois' role alongside Connor McMichael and Ryan Leonard, while the newly formed trio of Ilya Protas, Aliaksei Protas, and Tom Wilson should receive fairly high usage.
Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets had an incredible upswing initially after appointing Rick Bowness as head coach, but ultimately fizzled out down the stretch, playing to a record of 2-7-1 over the last ten games and failing to qualify for the postseason as a result.
Columbus's recent underlying metrics have remained solid, as it holds a 52.37% expected goal share over the last ten games. It fared poorly in one-goal games down the stretch and, as was the case for the majority of the season, left some points on the table with some ugly late collapses in games that were otherwise well played.
One of the greater motivations for the Blue Jackets in Tuesday's matchup may be helping Zach Werenski collect a few more points to further his case for the Norris Trophy. Werenski pushed as high as a -450 favorite to win the award earlier in the month, but has been less dominant down the stretch, and his team ultimately missing the playoffs will likely hurt his case in the eyes of many voters, whether that is fair or not.
Jet Greaves has been confirmed as the Blue Jackets' starting goaltender for this matchup. Greaves has played to a +16.0 GSAx rating and a .908 save percentage this season across 54 appearances, and the edge he offers over Stevenson is a key reason the Blue Jackets are now a fairly large favorite.
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Prediction
The Capitals have been in the midst of a strong run of play down the stretch, benefitting from the additions of a pair of highly touted rookies during a furious push for a playoff spot. While this game does not theoretically hold any meaning, it seems logical to expect a strong effort in attempting to win what may be the final game of Ovechkin's career.
Unfortunately, I locked in bets on the Capitals to win (and posted to my Action app profile) before the surprise announcement of a Stevenson start as well as the confirmation that Dubois would miss the game. While I'm frustrated to have lost line value, at the current price of +128, I do still believe the Capitals are the side presenting value.
Stevenson has been solid in a small sample of NHL play this season, while Sourdif should be able to fill in Dubois' role respectably. As a result, the price moving from +100 to +128 is enough to make me believe the Capitals are still undervalued.
For a much smaller stake, I also see value in backing the Capitals to cover -1.5 and Ovechkin to be the last goalscorer at +2300. If the Capitals have a late lead, they will certainly attempt to let Ovechkin tally an empty netter, which would leave him in line to be the last goalscorer in a game where Washington covers the reverse puck-line.
Picks:
- Washington Capitals Moneyline +128 (FanDuel, Play to +120)
- Capitals -1.5, Ovechkin Last Goalscorer Parlay (+2300)
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