2020 Illinois Democratic Primary Odds: Biden Overwhelming Favorite Entering Tuesday’s Voting


Photo credit: Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Biden

  • The betting favorite in all four states voting in the 2020 Democratic Primary on Tuesday, Joe Biden is massive -20,000 favorite to secure the most delegates in Illinois.
  • The odds give the former vice president a 94.5% implied probability of winning; he's a similar favorite to win the nomination currently.
  • Bernie Sanders is down to a +2000 underdog, giving him just a 4.6% implied probability of winning.

Despite the threat of COVID-19 across the United States, the four states currently slated to vote in the 2020 Democratic primary on Tuesday, March 17 — Arizona, Florida, Illinois and Ohio — will still hold the elections.

The race is now down to just three candidates: Former vice president Joe Biden, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders and Hawaii rep. Tulsi Gabbard.

Biden remains a heavy favorite to win the nomination, and he’s now even money with President Donald Trump to win the general election in November amidst the current health threat and economic turmoil.

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The candidates will compete for 155 total delegates in Illinois, which makes up about 3.9% of the total number in the primary. Biden is currently a massive favorite to win the majority of those delegates; European book Betfair currently gives him -20,000 odds (bet $20,000 to win $100) to do so. That’s a juice-free implied probability of 94.5%.

Sanders is down at an implied probability of 4.6%, while Gabbard is at 0.9%.

One way the COVID-19 situation could affect the primary is with the voting age gap: Older citizens are at a higher risk — according to data we’ve seen so far — and there’s a stark gap between support for Biden (generally older) and Sanders (generally much younger). Biden likely has too much of a lead to skew this, but if voter turnout is drastically affected, it could make a difference.

Politics site FiveThirtyEight is right in line with the betting market here, as they give Biden a greater than 99% chance to win Illinois.

See the full Illinois primary odds below (via Betfair). Implied probabilities have the juice removed.

2020 Illinois Democratic Primary Odds

If you’re unfamiliar with betting odds, -20,000 means that if you bet $20,000 and Joe Biden wins, you’d profit $100. And +2000 means if you bet $100, you’d profit $2,000.

  • Joe Biden: -20,000, 94.5% implied probability
  • Bernie Sanders: +2000, 4.6% implied probability
  • Tulsi Gabbard: +10000, 0.9% implied probability

More 2020 Democratic Primary Odds Coverage

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