As President of the United States, Donald Trump stands as one of the highest-profile public figures on the planet. Every interaction, meeting, policy decision, or social media post triggers massive ripple effects, including right across prediction markets.
That is why today we have selected some of the most compelling Kalshi markets surrounding President Trump, ranging from speculation on his official state visits to market contracts on who will be the next official to depart his administration.
Who Will Trump Meet This Year?
With the confirmation of the meeting between Trump and Xi Jinping, one of the markets that moved the most in recent days is the one concerning the U.S. President's future encounters with high-profile world figures.
These types of markets are highly volatile, as the Trump administration has been characterized by managing the presidential agenda in an unorthodox manner, rescheduling and canceling meetings depending on the political climate.
Right now, Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, is the leading candidate to meet with Trump during 2026. Saudi Arabia is seeking formal security guarantees with the United States and access to top-tier military hardware. For the U.S. administration, strengthening this bond reinforces Riyadh as the primary anchor to counter Iranian influence in the Middle East.
However, Salman’s contract is far too expensive. The real value lies in a potential meeting with Abelardo de la Espriella, the current President of Colombia. Right now, traders estimate a 53% probability that this meeting materializes, but those odds have been in a steep decline over recent weeks and are likely to continue trending downward.
The political horizon in the United States is dominated by the midterms, bilateral summits with global leaders, and a potential meeting with Vladimir Putin. In this context, fading a meeting between Trump and De la Espriella is the way to go.
Which states will Trump visit this year?
Tracking a president's travel schedule can be a complicated task. This Kalshi market aims to predict which states Trump will visit between now and the end of the year.
Historically, the highest probability states fall into three distinct categories: battleground states key to midterms, states hosting high-profile Republican summits or donor dinners, and states containing key Trump Organization properties like Florida and New Jersey.
The real value lies in targeting states with Yes shares selling at a discount, but that could host major industrial, energy, or manufacturing events. Those events frequently receive presidential visits tied to policy announcements.
At this time of year, as the midterm elections set the country's political pulse, traders can easily forget that the president has other on-the-ground duties beyond campaigns and scheduled stops in battleground states. Buying Yes shares in Kansas and Montana can be a somewhat risky, yet highly profitable stance.
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
This Kalshi contract measures the probability of key officials exiting their roles in the Trump administration before December 31, 2026. For now, Gleason, Hegseth and Wiles have the dubious honor of leading the board.
Amy Gleason’s high pricing reflects the inherent volatility of temporary "Acting" roles and the public scrutiny surrounding the Department of Government Efficiency. Acting heads face lower political friction to replace than Senate-confirmed cabinet secretaries.
Susie Wiles trading at 31% shows market skepticism regarding long-term Chief of Staff survival in the White House, a position that averaged less than 1.5 years in Trump's first administration.
The focal point in this market is Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense whose exit odds have surged in recent days due to multiple news outlets reporting growing dissatisfaction with his job performance.
Traders appear to be underestimating the political cost of removing Hegseth from his post. Historically, high-profile cabinet secretaries survive initial news cycles unless formal resignations are submitted. In that context, fading his departure could prove to be a solid position.
