As President of the United States, Donald Trump stands as one of the highest-profile public figures on the planet. Every interaction, meeting, policy decision, or social media post triggers massive ripple effects, including right across prediction markets.
That is why today we have selected some of the most compelling Kalshi markets surrounding President Trump, ranging from speculation on his official state visits to market contracts on who will be the next official to depart his administration.
Trump Truth Social posts this week?
Yes, everything Donald Trump does can be turned into a prediction market, even his posts on Truth Social. The mechanics of this market are fairly straightforward: traders predict how many posts he will make this week across brackets that increase in 19-post increments.
Right now, the weekly forecast sits at around 162 posts. Historically, heavy posting brackets correlate directly with travel days, mid-flight updates aboard The Beast or private transit, and weekend rallies.
Currently, the position with the highest growth potential and a strong chance of hitting the mark is the 180–199 posts bracket. It’s a high number, but presidential late-night sessions are often accompanied by a flurry of original posts and shares.
Keep close tabs on Trump’s online activity, and if the contract sees a massive surge due to a period of rapid-fire activity, consider selling high before quieter stretches drag the price back down.
Which states will Trump visit this year?
At this point in the year, with the midterms acting as a primary catalyst, the Kalshi contract predicting which states Trump will visit this year ranks among the most volatile and compelling markets in presidential prediction trading.
Right now, several frontrunners sit at heavy favorite odds above 90%, including Kansas, Montana, Iowa, and Alaska, where Republican candidates need his support now more than ever. The real value, however, lies in mid-tier options like Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico and the remaining states trading between 40% and 60% implied probability.
Several campaign stops have already been locked in, and the trading board reflects which battlegrounds stand to gain the most momentum from a presidential boost to endorse local Republican candidates.
In this environment, the most compelling strategy is targeting states that aren't highlighted as core campaign stops on Trump's main itinerary, but carry vital economic or industrial weight detached from standard midterm races. Buying Yes shares in Minnesota and Colorado at 49 and 41 cents respectively offers a solid play.
Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
This Kalshi contract measures the probability of key officials exiting their roles in the Trump administration before December 31, 2026. For now, Doug Collins and Pete Hegseth have the dubious honor of leading the board.
The focal point in this market is Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense whose exit odds have surged in recent days due to multiple news outlets reporting growing dissatisfaction with his job performance.
Traders appear to be underestimating the political cost of removing Hegseth from his post. Historically, high-profile cabinet secretaries survive initial news cycles unless formal resignations are submitted. In that context, fading his departure could prove to be a solid position.
One high-profile official who came under heavy criticism in recent weeks and whose Kalshi contract gained value is FBI Director Kash Patel. Yet despite rumors of internal friction, Patel is unlikely to be removed from his post in the immediate future.
Steve Witkoff is one of the most intriguing cases. As Special Envoy to the Middle East, he could come under serious pressure due to escalating scrutiny over diplomatic setbacks, shifting political priorities, and mounting public backlash.
As a high-profile real estate mogul tapped for a crucial diplomatic envoy role, Witkoff’s primary capital has always been his personal closeness to Donald Trump rather than formal foreign policy experience. However, in Washington, loyalty alone rarely guarantees job security.
If diplomatic negotiations surrounding Middle East stabilization stall or spark broader controversy over campaign spending and foreign policy overreach, domestic opposition will intensify and his Yes contract on Kalshi will surge.
How Low Will Trump’s Approval Rating Get Before 2027?
The Kalshi prediction market on how low Donald Trump’s approval rating will sink evaluates the probability of his average approval dropping below certain key thresholds before the contract expires.
This type of contract does not require the approval rating to remain permanently at a given floor; reaching the specified figure just once during the stipulated timeframe is enough for the Yes option to settle favorably.
As long as the cost of living and production costs keep rising, and the spending controversy surrounding the war with Iran persists, Trump’s popularity will be severely damaged, even in historically loyal strongholds.
Right now, the favorite contract is Below 36% at 72% implied odds, followed by Below 35% at 38% odds, and Below 34% at 17% odds. In this landscape, buying Yes shares in the frontrunner is steep. The most attractive play is targeting Yes shares on Below 35% at 38 cents.
