President Donald Trump’s approval rating hit a new all-time low. According to a poll published Monday, Trump sits at 33 percent, four percentage points down from a survey conducted in July and eight points lower than in October 2025.
These numbers are raising serious concerns among Republicans, signaling not only widespread dissatisfaction with the president, but also potential backlash against the entire party with less than three weeks to go before the midterm elections.
Approval Rates and Midterm Outcomes
A president's approval rating is a critical metric for reading the room on the eve of a midterm election. It serves as a reliable gauge of voter sentiment toward the president's party, as national disapproval rarely fails to spill over into state and regional races.
Historical data since World War II indicates that presidents entering midterm elections with approval ratings below 50% typically see their party lose an average of 26 to 30 House seats. In other words, there is a direct correlation between low approval ratings and seat losses.
A severe drop in presidential popularity transforms the midterms into a verdict on the administration itself rather than a comparison between two candidates.
House Control Odds: What Prediction Markets are Showing
The president's low approval rating has convinced Kalshi traders that Democrats are poised for major gains in this midterm election. In the "Which party will win the U.S. House?" market, Democrats lead with an implied probability of over 90%, a gap that, at this stage, appears virtually impossible for Republicans to erase.
These House control odds have remained fairly steady over the past month, with Yes shares for the Democratic Party trading at over 90 cents apiece since mid-September.
Senate Control Odds: A Tightly Contested Race
The Democratic Party leads with 63% implied odds, which translates to Yes shares trading at 63 cents. What is surprising is that as recently as mid-September, it was the Republican Party leading this trading board; since then, top spot has belonged to the blue team.
Unlike the market focused on House control, Kalshi traders do not believe Trump's low approval rating will have the exact same massive spillover effect on Senate races. Currently, the trading board reflects a tight contest, with Democrats holding the edge, but with significant potential for volatility in these final weeks heading into Election Day.
This remains one of the most compelling and dynamic markets of the entire election cycle due to its susceptibility to sharp shifts in trader sentiment. Moreover, notable discrepancies have emerged between prediction markets and traditional pollsters, primarily driven by differing methodologies and parameters between the two sources.
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Generic Congressional Ballots vs. Prediction Markets
The most critical takeaway from the Generic Congressional Ballot is that, since mid-September, Republicans have experienced a slow but steady decline.
Whether at the state level, in Senate races, or for control of the House, GOP candidates appear to be losing momentum. While many point to President Trump's dropping popularity as the driver of this trend, it is far from the only factor at play.
Overall, prediction markets and Generic Ballot polling align on the premise that Democrats hold the edge. However, when evaluating individual key races, sharp discrepancies emerge regarding just how tight the final margins will be, including the potential for mandatory recounts in several battleground districts.
