The US tariff rate on China continues to be a hot topic, with many Americans using prediction markets like Kalshi to weigh in.
Where might the rate land come July 1st? To trade on this market, sign up at Kalshi and make your prediction known.
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US Tariff Rate on China on July 1: Live Kalshi Odds
There are a handful of different outcomes being bought by Kalshi traders, with the majority betting the US tariff rate on China to be between 10% and 19.99% on July 1st.
Between 20% and 29.99% is much less popular, but it's the only other outcome that boasts a double-digit odds percentage.
With just over a month until this market closes, there's a good chance of a popularity surge once the deadline starts to draw nearer. With a total trading volume of ~$75,000 so far, this is a thin market where the odds are likely to fluctuate significantly.
US-China Tariff Rate Prediction Market Analysis
The US tariff rate on China is in an interesting spot, with recent trade policy shifts following an impactful Supreme Court ruling back in February.
As a result, previous tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were struck down. Still, the Trump administration was quick to respond, imposing a 10% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
This was scheduled to run for 150 days, meaning it's set to expire on July 24th. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the aforementioned 10% baseline rate will still be in effect on July 1. As a result, the rate is extremely unlikely to fall into single digits.
While not technically impossible, a drop below 10% is very much improbable, as it would mean one of two things: a legal injunction blocking the active Section 122 universal tariffs or a negotiated settlement between the US and China by July 1st.
If the history of this administration has taught us anything, a dip below 10% would need to come on the back of legal enforcement. More specifically, a court intervention of some sort.
Previous iterations of this Kalshi market have seen the US tariff rate on China settle above 20%, but the 20% to 29.99% outcome still isn't one we'd advise buying into at this time.
An early rate hike before the July 24 expiration date is a minor possibility, but it would be surprising to see that happen when the administration can easily wait out the remainder of this 150-day window.
Overall, we'd recommend sticking with the consensus of this Kalshi market, which means buying between 10% and 19.99% "Yes" contracts for ~67 cents apiece. If you're looking to find some contrarian value, below 10% "Yes" contracts will only set you back ~7 cents each.
When Will This Kalshi Market Conclude?
Here are the "What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?" market rules according to Kalshi:
- The market of the winning outcome resolves to "Yes". For example, if the general import tariff rate on imports from China into the United States on Jul 1, 2026, is between 10 to 19.99%, then that market resolves to "Yes".
- The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country.
- Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count – announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify.
- The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect.
- Outcome will be verified by the following sources: The President of the United States, the United States Congress, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Reuters, Axios, Politico, Semafor, The Information, The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, ABC, CBS, CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC.
