You’d have to be crazy to think France won’t win its group in the 2026 FIFA World Cup. But then again, unexpected craziness often happens in the World Cup.
Polymarket traders heavily favor the French, but nothing is a guarantee, so let's look more closely at this market.
Group I Odds
Les Bleus: A Rich History of Glory, Drama, and Heartbreak
Let's analyze France's case to win Group I. The first time France became world champions was in 1998, when they hosted the tournament. Afterward, they suffered a sudden, shocking exit from the World Cup during the group stage in Korea-Japan. They went from reaching the highest stage of global football to leaving among the lowest positions on the table.
However, the French team kept growing. In Germany 2006, they lost against Italy in a final match deeply etched into the history books. The legendary Zinedine Zidane scored the first goal from a penalty for France. But in the second half of extra time, the experienced French maestro lost his composure and headbutted Italy's Marco Materazzi. France was ultimately eliminated in the penalty shootout, and while Zidane received the Golden Ball, he didn't go to accept the award while the Italians raised the cup.
History wrote a different script in Russia 2018. With goals from Kylian Mbappé and Antoine Griezmann, France thrashed Croatia 4-2 to secure their second World Title. Their last final in Qatar 2022 was nothing short of epic: a 3-3 thriller against Argentina. Once again, Mbappé proved why he is one of the best players on the planet. But it wasn't enough: France lost in the penalty shootout, and Argentina lifted their third World Cup. In 2026, France aims to maintain the spectacular World Cup streak that has made them one of the best contemporary national teams in the world.
The Chasers: High Stakes, Fair Play, and Long Odds
Norway has participated in four World Cups, but has never managed to advance past the Round of 16. They don’t possess a squad with the overall depth and caliber of France, but in a World Cup, anything can happen. Even the smallest detail can decide which team advances if there are ties on the board.
Senegal knows exactly what it means to miss out by a hair. In Russia 2018, the African nation made history by being eliminated in the group stage purely due to the “fair play rule”. The national team was tied in every conceivable metric with Japan, sharing the exact same number of goals for and against, as well as the same number of points.
So, how was the tie broken? By the number of cards received. Senegal had accumulated six yellow cards in the group stage, while Japan had only four. Still, the African team's best performance came in Korea-Japan 2002, where their World Cup debut arrived with a historic feat: reaching the quarterfinals. One can never underestimate the strength of African teams.
Meanwhile, Iraq's situation is a bit more complicated. It has been 40 long years since they last managed to participate in a World Cup. And the statistics from four decades ago do not favor them: they exited in the group stage, lost all three matches, and only managed to score a single goal.
