The World Cup is not just soccer’s most prestigious event for elite superstars to cement their legacy. It is also a legendary stage in which newcomers can establish themselves as the future of the game. That’s why one of the most interesting individual awards of the tournament is the FIFA Young Player award, a prize given to the newcomer who has made the biggest impression during his first World Cup appearance.
At Kalshi, traders are actively trying to forecast which rising star will clear the field to be crowned the tournament's top under-21 performer.
The Croatian Paradox: Luka Vušković
Currently traders believe that Luka Vušković is the prime contender. The Croatian 19-year-old defender is coming off a breakout campaign in the Bundesliga and is expected to play a key role in Croatia's defensive unit. Football analysts widely claim that Vušković possesses the tactical baseline to become Europe’s premier central defender, turning this World Cup into a true trial by fire for those projections.
However, a contrarian case can be made that Vušković’s Yes shares are significantly overpriced. Vušković's chances rely entirely on Croatia’s performance. If he is to win the award, his national team must qualify at least to the semis. Given that the current Croatian squad is in a transitional phase and dealing with aging roster friction, their path through the newly expanded 48-team knockout bracket is highly difficult.
Spanish Talent: Lamine Yamal
Surprisingly, Lamine Yamal—possibly soccer’s biggest young star—is positioned behind Vušković with a wide margin of difference. However, the Spanish winger enters the summer with immense media momentum and is widely projected to be one of the tournament's primary entertainers.
Right now, his Yes shares sell at a considerable discount, offering a truly attractive option. Spain will most likely crush the group stage, and as the Spanish side advances through the tournament, Yamal’s Yes shares will surely spike in price.
Parisian Duopoly: Zaire-Emery and Doué
Further down the board, the French national team presents an embarrassment of riches, boasting two incredibly promising young weapons from the exact same domestic soccer academy.
According to Polymarket traders, Warren Zaïre-Emery and Désiré Doué have the exact same implied probabilities of winning the award, especially if France manages to have an impressive World Cup run.
Their similarities are incredible.
Both Zaïre-Emery and Doué play for Paris Saint-Germain. Their style is exuberant, full of unpredictability and sudden bursts of speed. While they might not be starters for the French side, they are game-changing options off the bench. If one of these attackers manages to score a crucial goal, then his Yes shares will go through the roof.
Rules and Strategies
The Age Factor: To qualify for this award, players must be 21 or younger at the start of the calendar year.
The Schedule: Because the FIFA Young Player award is almost never awarded to a player whose team gets knocked out in the Round of 16, you can use the bracket schedule to systematically eliminate liabilities. Keep in mind that the tournament features an expanded 48-team format; the knockout stage now requires teams to win a Round of 32 match before reaching that stage.
Strategy: Traders must identify elite players on teams with historically easy paths to the semifinals. If Spain or France navigates their side of the bracket cleanly, the implied probabilities for Yamal or Olise will violently correct upward.
