With the presence of goalscoring legends such as Lionel Messi, Cristiano Ronaldo and Mohamed Salah, alongside intimidating young strikers like Viktor Gyokeres and Erling Haaland, the FIFA World Cup promises to be a tournament with historic attacking outputs. That's why traders at Kalshi are predicting how many individual hat tricks we will see during the competition.
The opening matches of the group stage will be crucial for the development of the "World Cup: Hattricks" market, so let's analyze the odds and predictions.
The Hat Trick Line
Historically, scoring a hat trick on soccer's greatest stage is an incredibly rare feat. Across nearly a century of World Cup history, fewer than 60 hat tricks have ever been recorded. However, this edition is unlike any other, as more games will be played and weaker teams will be part of the group stage.
This structural shift opens the door for massive scores between soccer heavyweights and fragile defensive sides.
Kalshi traders currently believe that the implied probability of seeing 3+ hat tricks is close to certainty. Those Yes shares sell at an incredibly high price, leaving space only for high-volume traders.
Meanwhile, the No shares on 3+ hat tricks remain an interesting option with an attractive potential payout if the elite strikers of soccer powerhouses fail to deliver spectacular performances.
The market sentiment changes drastically when it comes to 4+ hat tricks, as traders think that such a feat is very unlikely given the defensive cohesion of a lot of supposedly weaker sides. While those teams may lose, the chances that at least four teams will concede a minimum of three goals in a single game seem like a long shot for a lot of traders.
Potential Value Plays
Hat tricks are almost exclusively a product of the group stage, where the disparity in talent between top giants like France, Spain and Argentina, and bottom-tier qualifiers is at its peak. Once the tournament reaches the knockout rounds, matches become notoriously more conservative and balanced.
A viable strategy is to accumulate 4+ hat tricks Yes shares early, before the opening whistle of the tournament.
The first two weeks of the group stage feature a dense, rapid-fire schedule of lopsided matchups. If an elite striker secures a hat trick in the opening days against an underdog, the market will not only resolve to Yes in the case of 1+ hat tricks, but it will also start correcting the prices of every bracket.
You don't necessarily have to hold this contract until the final in July. When you perceive that the Yes shares on predictions like 4+ goals have reached their peak, you can sell your position. That’s the beauty of prediction markets: you can always exit your contract to cash in on profits.
Important Games To Keep An Eye Out For
As said before, the group stage is prone to bulky victories by leading nations. There are a few games that might be crucial for this market as potential catalysts for massive goalscoring volatility on Kalshi.
- June 14 – Germany plays against first-time participants Curacao, in one of the tournament's most unbalanced matchups. The same day, Viktor Gyokeres' Sweden plays against Tunisia.
- June 15 – the powerful Spanish side plays against Cape Verde, which may result in a historic defeat for the African team.
- June 17 – Portugal will clash with DR Congo, and the presence of Cristiano Ronaldo is always a catalyst for speculation and heavy volume flows.
- June 19 – Brazil plays against Haiti, and all traders will be looking at the Selecao's elite forward line with Vinicius Jr., Rodrygo and even Neymar. The goalscoring potential is huge.
As you can see, every single match could turn the market upside down. If a supposedly lopsided game ends up being tight and the underdog concedes few goals, then all the brackets will see an impressive surge in price for the No shares.
With the official kickoff date only a few days away, speculation and trading volume are growing constantly at Kalshi.
