Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mexico forward Javier Aquino (20) dribbling
- Uruguay, Peru, Mexico and Poland are getting the most love from bettors to advance from their groups.
- Saudi Arabia (+4000) and Panama (+5000) are the biggest longshots to win their groups.
- Based on the odds, the group winners are projected to be: Uruguay, Spain, France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Belgium and Colombia.
The World Cup starts in less than a week but odds and futures have been available for more than six months. Over that time, bettors have been hitting certain teams and moving lines around the market.
Let’s look at the opening and current odds to win and advance from each group to find the most popular bets.
Uruguay has been getting tons of love to both win and advance from the group, although you can still find them at +110 to win Group A around the market. Oddsmakers still believe Russia will get through to the Round of 16 with Egypt’s Mo Salah nursing a shoulder injury.
The public and sharps are both on Spain to win/advance from Group B. Portugal is a trendy pick to advance to the Round of 16, but not by sharp bettors — their odds to win/advance from the group have both increased.
Bettors have been taking Peru to advance, dropping their odds from +260 to +150. However, their odds to win the group have actually moved from +800 to +1000. Denmark’s odds to win the group have gone unchanged, but they’ve moved from -175 to -120 to advance. Bettors believe the race for second place in the group is closer than previously thought.
Unsurprisingly, bettors have flocked toward Argentina while souring on Nigeria and Iceland. Croatia could be a sneaky pick to win the group here.
There hasn’t been much movement in this group, and you can actually find better odds than the opener for every team except Costa Rica to advance. They’ve dropped from +400 to +350 and could make another sneaky run like they did in 2014.
Mexico has seen considerable action to advance, moving from +135 to +100 since opening, but they’re still a longshot to finish ahead of Germany.
Bettors have flocked toward Belgium to both win and advance from Group G. Panama is the biggest longshot in the entire tournament, but keep in mind that Costa Rica was around +4000 to win their group in the 2014 World Cup, and did so against Uruguay, England and Italy.
Group H is by far the “tightest” group in the World Cup in terms of the odds. Poland and Senegal have been getting some love to advance while Colombia and Japan have gone the other way.
Betting Breakdowns For All 32 Teams
- Group A: Russia | Saudi Arabia | Egypt | Uruguay
- Group B: Portugal | Morocco | Iran | Spain
- Group C: France | Australia | Peru | Denmark
- Group D: Argentina | Iceland | Croatia | Nigeria
- Group E: Brazil | Costa Rica | Switzerland | Serbia
- Group F: Germany | Mexico | Sweden | South Korea
- Group G: Belgium | Panama | Tunisia | England
- Group H: Poland | Senegal | Colombia | Japan