Arsenal (6-0-0) will put their perfect Champions League record on the line against Italian powerhouse Inter (4-2-0) on Tuesday, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET from the iconic San Siro in Milan, Italy.
This matchup pits an elite attack against a stubborn defense in a high-stakes European contest.
Arsenal is favored at a +155 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-111o / -111u) goals.
Let's get into my Arsenal vs. Inter prediction.
Arsenal vs. Inter Prediction
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-111)
My Arsenal vs. Inter best bet is for the game to stay Under 2.5 goals. This Champions League match features two of the most disciplined and effective defensive teams in Europe, which points toward a tactical affair with few goals.
Arsenal vs. Inter Odds
| Arsenal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +145 | 2.5 -111o / -111u | +155 |
| Inter Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -200 | 2.5 -111o / -111u | +170 |
Arsenal vs. Inter Picks
Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-111, bet365)
This matchup profiles as a classic battle between two defensive titans. The argument for a low goal total is compelling when you examine the data behind both squads. Arsenal has been nearly impenetrable in its Champions League campaign, with just one goal conceded through six matches.
The advanced metrics support this dominance, as Mikel Arteta’s side holds the lowest expected goals against (xGA) figure in the entire competition.
Inter is right behind them with the second-lowest xGA, a testament to its own structural integrity. The Italian club has a history of defensive excellence on this stage; last season, it allowed only a single goal through the entire league phase.
That defensive mindset was on display in its most recent home Champions League match against Liverpool, a 1-0 loss where Inter produced just 0.44 expected goals (xG).
Expect a similar tactical chess match when these two teams meet, where quality chances will be a rare commodity.
Arsenal vs. Inter Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Arsenal | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| 41.2% | 25.7% | 33.1% |
Projected Total Goals
| Arsenal | Total Goals | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| 1.33 | 2.51 | 1.18 |
Arsenal vs. Inter Betting Analysis
The stakes of this match add another layer to the analysis. Arsenal has already secured its spot in the top eight, which guarantees a direct path to the Round of 16.
The Gunners just need to maintain their form to lock up a top seed. For Inter, the situation is more urgent. The club sits sixth and needs points to avoid the uncertainty of the knockout playoffs.
This difference in motivation could lead to a more conservative approach, especially from an Inter side that cannot afford a defeat.
A look at the head-to-head history reinforces the potential for a tight contest. When these teams met last season, Inter secured a 1-0 victory at home. In that game, Arsenal held 63% possession but struggled to convert its dominance into goals.
Inter has won two of the three official meetings between the clubs. While Arsenal appears to be a much-improved team this season, the historical results suggest Inter knows how to neutralize the English club’s attack, particularly at the San Siro.
Given the context and the defensive might on both sides, a cautious, low-scoring game seems probable.
Check out the best soccer odds before you make your Arsenal vs Inter picks.
