Barcelona and Newcastle United face off in a decisive Champions League Round of 16 second leg today at 1:45 p.m. EDT at Camp Nou in Barcelona, Spain.
After a dramatic late equalizer in the first game left the series level, Barcelona’s formidable home record clashes with Newcastle’s strong European form.
Let's get into our Newcastle vs. Barcelona prediction.
Newcastle vs. Barcelona Prediction
Picks: Barcelona to Win, Both Teams to Score, and Over 2.5 Goals
Our Newcastle vs. Barcelona best bet is a same-game parlay: the home team to win, both teams to find the back of the net and over 2.5 goals.
Newcastle vs. Barcelona Odds
| Newcastle Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -275o / 220u | +375 | |
| Barcelona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -275o / 220u | -182 | |
Newcastle vs. Barcelona Picks, Parlay
Leg 1: Barcelona to Win
Leg 2: Both Teams to Score
Leg 3: Over 2.5 Goals
Barcelona have won 17 of 18 games in all competitions this season, making them the likely winners in the 1x2 market.
The one outlier came against PSG in October in the UEFA Champions League league phase, when the Parisians won 1-2. PSG won a fairly balanced fixture on that day, with 1.27 xG to PSG’s 1.67 xG, and three big chances to five.
Considering the hosts have been largely unstoppable this season in front of home supporters, this will prove a significant worry for Newcastle.
However, given the way the Premier League outfit performed in the first leg and the chances created, Eddie Howe should be confident that Newcastle will generate chances.
Barcelona won three of four games at home in the Champions League this season, but allowed at least a goal in each. Both teams scored, with over 2.5 goals in all four matches.
Barcelona have an xG 32.98 (expected goals) at home this season, which is 2.54 xG per match. Newcastle scored 14 away goals in five Champions League matches – 2.80 goals on average per game.
The teams combined for 25 shots in the first leg, while they also combined for 2.27 xG, so goals here are widely expected.
Newcastle vs. Barcelona Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Newcastle | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| 21.8% | 20.1% | 58.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Newcastle | Total Goals | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| 1.23 | 3.32 | 2.10 |
Newcastle vs. Barcelona Betting Analysis
Barcelona were lucky to score from a penalty spot deep into injury time in the first leg of this Champions League duel with Newcastle and salvage a draw.
Newcastle have to be disappointed as they deserved to beat the Spanish champions, who weren’t much interested in playing football at St. James’ Park. Now, Eddie Howe’s men face an uphill battle at Camp Nou, where the hosts are strong favourites.
Since returning to this historic venue from Estadi Olimpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona won all 13 matches, including two in the Champions League over Frankfurt and Copenhagen.
However, despite winning three of four Champions League matches at home this season (a 2-1 loss to PSG), Barcelona conceded in each – a chance for the visitors to score and make things harder for the hosts.
Newcastle aren’t playing well away from home in the Premier League, but in the Champions League, they suffered just one defeat in five games. The English outfit even managed to get a 1-1 draw in Paris against PSG.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Barcelona vs Newcastle picks.
