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Brighton vs Leeds Updated Betting Odds, Picks & EPL Prediction

Brighton vs Leeds Updated Betting Odds, Picks & EPL Prediction article feature image
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Catherine Ivill/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds United standout Brenden Aaronson.

Brighton vs. Leeds Odds

Brighton Odds -115
Leeds Odds +310
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-124 / +102)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Odds updated as of Saturday morning via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Clubs off to sizzling Premier League starts square off Saturday when Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Leeds United in a clash of top-five outfits.

The Seagulls are unbeaten (2-0-1/W-L-D) through three fixtures, highlighted by a 2-1 win over Manchester United at Old Trafford on debut and 2-0 victory at West Ham United last time out. Sandwiched in between those results is a scoreless stalemate with Newcastle United.

On the other side, things have been just as glorious for the American manager Jesse Marsch and the Peacocks. Like their counterparts, they’re also unbeaten on the season (2-0-1/W-L-D) and enter this affair fresh off a shocking 3-0 rout of perennial power Chelsea last weekend at Elland Road.

This should be a helluva showdown between clubs with European competition hopes, so let’s see which side — if either — has an edge entering this meeting.

Brighton & Hove Albion

If you follow our Action Network soccer coverage, you already know we’re big fans of manager Graham Potter and the Seagulls. Win or lose, our group of handicappers loves Brighton, so this positive start has made us a giddy group.

From my perspective, it has been great to see this side finally achieving deserved results that actually coincide wth its advanced metrics. In past seasons, Brighton put up gaudy numbers that it them look like a borderline Champions League side on paper. Yet, the results rarely matched the data and led the Seagulls into more than one relegation scrap.

However, things have drastically changed for Brighton. Through three games, the club has racked up 4.2 expected goals and yielded just 2.6 xGA overall against three potential Top 10 EPL sides come season’s end.

By The Numbers

  • +1.6 — Brighton’s xGDiff through three EPL matches this season.
  • +0.54 — The Seagulls’ xGDiff per 90 minutes in that trio of contests.
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Leeds United

American soccer fans finally have a team they can root for in the English top flight due to the influx of red, white and blue star power on the pitch for the feisty Peacocks.

United States internationals Tyler Adams and Brenden Aaronson have been nothing short of solid, in particular the latter of the duo. Aaronson opened his Leeds account with the first goal in last weekend’s win against Chelsea. Bottom line, this pair and former New York City FC standout Jack Harrison generate plenty of excitement for U.S. folks.


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But let’s not overlook the fact Leeds has the leading goal scorer in the entire league patrolling the opposition’s defensive third of the pitch. And no, it’s not Patrick Bamford.

Spain international Rodrigo is off to a scintillating beginning, recording four goals and an assist so far. He has been nothing short of brilliant, racking up 1.8 xG and NPxG in three games. Needless to say, if Rodrigo and and Harrison (one goal/three assists) can maintain any semblance of these numbers, Leeds could hang around quite a long time among the big fish in the 20-team pond.

By The Numbers

  • +4.6 — Number of xG created by the Peacocks this season.
  • +0.52 — Leeds’ xGDiff/90 minutes through three EPL fixtures.
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Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite being a hardcore Leeds supporter, I’m on the record forecasting my club to be relegated this season. Obviously, I wasn’t high on the Peacocks entering the campaign, but I’ll be more than happy if I’m wrong when the season concludes.

That said, though, I think this is a bad matchup for Leeds for two reasons. The first is the potential “bounce” from that Chelsea upset. The Peacocks dominated proceedings, finishing with a 1.9-0.7 xG edge and limited the Blues to just three shots on target. Yet, this could be a major letdown spot for a side due for some early negative offensive regression.

The other is the utter dominance Brighton has displayed against Leeds of late. The Seagulls have shut out the Peacocks in their last six meetings across all competitions. Leeds is also winless in its last eight trips to the South Coast.

So, I’m backing Brighton to cover -0.75 goals via the Asian Handicap at +105 odds as my top pick. I really think the Seagulls are the more balanced combatants, which gives them the slight edge in this match.

The Pick: Brighton -0.75 (+105)

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