Bundesliga Odds, Picks: How to Bet Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich & More

Fans of German soccer don't have to even wait for the weekend for the highlight match of the slate. Borussia Dortmund defeated RB Leipzig on Friday afternoon in an entertaining clash near the top of the table.

There's a handful of intriguing matches in the mid-table of the Bundesliga as Freiburg visit Borussia Monchengladbach and Wolfsburg host Eintracht Frankfurt. 17th will face 18th at the foot of the table as Bochum play Schalke, and Hoffenheim visit mid-table Mainz with relegation now a real danger for the visitors.

Here are my three best bets for the Bundesliga slate, featuring Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich.

Bundesliga Odds & Picks

VfL Bochum vs Schalke 04

Saturday's matchup is a true relegation six pointer with Schalke and Bochum sitting at the bottom of the table. Bochum's 2-0 loss to Freiburg two weeks ago ended their five match home winning streak, but they've been much more solid defensively when playing in front of the home fans.

Bochum's defense is the worst in Germany as a whole, but there's a massive delta between the home and away defensive performances. Bochum are conceding 2.5 xGA per match on their travels, but that number drops to 1.5 xGA at home this year. That's still not great, but it's a considerable upgrade and now they host the worst attack in Germany.

Schalke have improved their defensive organization considerably in the last month too. Since an away thrashing against RB Leipzig, they've conceded one goal in five matches and held every opponent under 1.5 xGA. Thomas Reis deserves credit for making this Schalke side difficult to breakdown away from home this season.

Poor goalkeeping has hurt them in the results department, but they actually have conceded just 14.1 xGA in 10 away league matches this season. Because they've been so defensive, the attack has totally failed to create consistent scoring chances.

Schalke's defensive organization travels decently well and Bochum's attack will struggle to produce chances. Bochum's porous defense will get a reprieve against an anemic Schalke attack. An early goal could change everything, but both managers will be cautious to avoid losing on Saturday. The result is a conservative stalemate and few goals.

Dabbundo's Pick: Under 2.5 (-115 or better)

VfB Stuttgart vs Bayern Munich

Union Berlin faced the wrath of an angry Bayern Munich last weekend when the Bavarians dominated in a 3-0 win. Bayern recovered from their loss to Gladbach with a resounding performance, but now the German champions find themselves in a tricky spot.

On paper, an away day to 15th placed Stuttgart doesn't look particularly daunting. But Bayern have a critical second leg of the Champions League looming on Wednesday against PSG to consider. Their attacking depth is so great that manager Julian Nagelsmann can rotate without much of a drop-off.

Stuttgart's primary problem has been results away from home, and that's why they are sitting tied with the second fewest points in the Bundesliga. They haven't won a match all season on the road. On the other hand, the underlying numbers at home are quite impressive. Stuttgart have a +4 xGD at home this season with even better ball progression and field tilt data.

The primary issue for why they've underperformed their xG data is goalkeeping. Florian Muller is having a career-worst shot stopping season and teams have finished at a ridiculous rate against them. They've conceded 38 goals from 28.8 xGA this season, which suggests the defense has major positive regression looming.

Stuttgart rank fourth in expected threat, top-six in shot differential, fifth in xT allowed and fifth in box entries. Given that they're also fifth in xG per shot allowed, I'd expect improvement for this defense. If Bayern aren't sharp, they'll struggle to overwhelm Stuttgart.

Bayern are overvalued given the impressive underlying statistics of their opponent. Just two weeks ago, Bayern lost 3-2 to their bogey team Gladbach as a similarly priced -1.5 road favorite. Putting the history of that fixture aside, Stuttgart have a considerably better defense and better overall underlying numbers. Add in the spot and I'll take Stuttgart +1.5 at home at -125.

Dabbundo's Pick: Stuttgart +1.5 (-125 via BetRivers)

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Wolfsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt

My Bundesliga projections have a very small gap between the fifth and 11th-best team in the league. After the top four of Bayern, Leipzig, Dortmund and (gap) Leverkusen, there's not much to separate the second tier of German teams in true quality.

The table may say otherwise with Union Berlin, Eintracht Frankfurt and Freiburg, but they're not much better than Wolfsburg or Mainz. 

As a result, I'm going to bet Wolfsburg as close to a pick'em at home against Eintracht Frankfurt in the final match of the weekend in Germany. Frankfurt have an attack reliant on creating big scoring chances to make up for their lacking shot volume.

That's the strength of this Wolfsburg defense, which allows plenty of shot volume but doesn't concede big scoring chances frequently. They're a top-five defense in average shot quality allowed.

Niko Kovac's overload possession system can find space in wide areas and in behind against Oliver Glasner's three at the back formation. Frankfurt like to get their wing backs forward and that can help Wolfsburg speed up in possession and attack quickly, where at times they move the ball too slowly to break down a defense.

Dabbundo's Pick: Wolfsburg PK (-125 or better)