Thursday Champions League Betting Odds & Picks: Atlético Madrid vs. RB Leipzig Preview (August 13)

Atlético Madrid vs. RB Leipzig Odds

Odds as of Thursday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Thrilling European soccer continues Thursday when Spanish juggernaut Atlético Madrid takes on German stalwart RB Leipzig in the first leg of the quarterfinal round of the Champions League tournament.

Like Wednesday’s Champions League match, this showdown will also take place in Portugal, this time at Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon.

RB Leipzig hasn’t featured in more than two months, with its last match ending in a 1-1 draw against Paderborn in Bundesliga action. Atlético Madrid has been off slightly less time, having battled Barcelona to a 2-2 tie on June 20 in La Liga play.

Atlético Madrid took a minor hit on the health side in the leadup to this match, with Angel Correa and Sime Vrsaljko testing positive for coronavirus earlier in the week. Both players are scheduled to miss the contest, but manager Diego Simeone must have breathed a big sigh of relief when he learned no one else on the team contracted the virus.

RB Leipzig, which is unbeaten in its last six Champions League games, will miss star striker Timo Werner after he left the Bundesliga club on a massive move to Premier League power Chelsea. Werner could have stayed through Champions League play, but opted to bounce to prepare for the upcoming season in England. Werner scored 32 goals across all competitions for RB Leipzig, and that has created a hole the club can’t fill in this situation.

According to the data at FiveThirtyEight, Atlético Madrid and RB Leipzig have almost identical chances to win the Champions League title via its Soccer Power Index numbers. The German outfit has an 85.8 overall SPI number, which is just slightly ahead of Atlético Madrid (85.5 points) in the overall ranking.

That same data gives RB Leipzig a 23 percent chance of reaching the championship and a 7 percent shot at winning the title. In contrast, Atlético Madrid is right behind its foe, holding a 20 percent chance to reach the final and a 6 percent chance to win it all.

With everything in mind, I am backing Atlético Madrid to advance in this fixture. Los Colchoneros have reached this point of the competition five of the last seven seasons and I see it continuing that trend.

Add in the fact Atlético Madrid is a perfect 3-0 against German clubs in the knockout stage of Champions League play in its storied history, and you have to like its chances to move on to the semifinal round. Play the Spanish powerhouse with confidence to march on.

If you’re looking for an additional or alternative play, I would recommend backing the total staying under the number. When you combine RB Leipzig’s loss of Werner with the fact there have been less than three goals scored in six of Atlético Madrid’s last seven Champions League games, you have all the makings for a low-scoring game.

The Bet: Atlético Madrid To Qualify (-163)

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