Wednesday Champions League Odds & Picks: Atalanta vs. Paris Saint-Germain (August 12)
Xavier Laine/Getty Images. Pictured: Kylian Mbappe.
- PSG is favored over Atalanta in Wednesday Champions League action, with the total at 3.
- PSG is banged up for this neutral-site clash, but Jeremy Pond still likes their team total over and the second half over at 1.5.
- Get his full breakdown for PSG vs. Atalanta below.
Atalanta vs. Paris Saint-Germain Odds
|Atalanta Odds||+260 [BET NOW]|
|Paris Saint-Germain Odds||-110 [BET NOW]|
|Draw Odds||+310 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3 (-134/+108) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
|TV||CBS All Access|
Things are going to heat up Wednesday in Champions League action when Italian power Atalanta battles global juggernaut Paris Saint-Germain in the quarterfinal round of the historic European competition.
Neither side will have the benefit of a home match, with the showdown taking place at Estádio da Luz in Lisbon, which is home to Portuguese side Benfica.
PSG enters the affair at anything but full strength. Star Kylian Mbappe has traveled with the club to Portugal for the contest, but will not be at 100% after suffering an ankle injury in last week’s friendly against Ligue 2 side Sochaux.
The French giant will definitely be without the services of standout midfielders Angel Di Maria (suspension) and Marco Verratti (injury), which is going to force manager Thomas Tuchel to make some interesting lineup decisions.
Atalanta has conceded more goals than other team left in the competition and must shore up its defense if it’s going to have any chance of moving on.
According to the data at FiveThirtyEight, PSG has the fourth-best chance to win the Champions League title via its Soccer Power Index numbers. Les Parisiens have an 89.2 overall SPI number, which is well ahead of Atalanta (82.6 points), who sit in seventh out of the eight remaining teams alive in the competition. That same data gives PSG a 36 percent chance of reaching the championship and a 14 percent shot at winning the title. In contrast, Atalanta is really up against it, boasting a 17 percent chance to reach the final and measly 4 percent chance to win it all.
With that in mind, I do not have any real confidence in either side due to the aforementioned negative reasons surrounding each combatant.
Instead, I am focusing on two totals, with my top play being the total going over the number in the second half of the contest. I anticipate an early goal to open things up in this contest, which should lead to a wild, second-half tussle due to the fact this is now a “one-and-done” situation instead of a two-match series.
Atalanta scored a whopping 98 goals in Serie A this season and has the capability of lighting things up at home, where it scored at least two goals in 17 of its 24 contests at its stadium. Les Parisiens have been just as prolific on the road, going 21-3-1 away from Les Parc des Princes and scoring at least two goals in 18 of their 25 matches away from home across all competitions.
That said, I will also play PSG to go over the total for goals. Les Parisiens have scored at least once in their last 32 Champions League games — the longest current streak in the tournament — and seeing them bag at least a couple here is something I am more than happy to back as well.
If you’re truly focused on a side, there is some value here on Atalanta getting a half point across global sports books, but I would recommend going with PSG to qualify for the semifinal round at -175 or lower on the number.
The Bets: PSG Over 1.5 Goals (-163); Total Over 1.5 Goals – 2H (-150)