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Chelsea vs Aston Villa Odds, Picks, Predictions | Premier League Preview

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Darren Walsh/Getty. Pictured: Enzo Fernandez

Chelsea vs Aston Villa Odds

Sunday, Sep. 24
9 a.m. ET
Peacock
Chelsea Odds-118
Aston Villa Odds+280
Draw+280
Over / Under
2.5
 -163 / +130
Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

It's early days, but Chelsea will already be in need of a confidence-building victory when they host a capable Aston Villa side on Sunday at Stamford Bridge.

Under new boss Mauricio Pochettino, Chelsea have created plenty of chances, but they are now coming off back-to-back scoreless matches after being held to a 0-0 draw at Bournemouth last Sunday.

Villa have had no such attacking troubles, scoring two or more goals in six of eight matches in all competitions entering Sunday's clash.

Home-field advantage hasn't been worth much in this fixture recently, with the visitor winning the last three, including both meetings last season.

Let's get into Chelsea vs Aston Villa.


Chelsea

Chelsea's scoreless draw at Bournemouth was the first such result anywhere in the Premier League this season, but it was more of the same for the Blues in terms of attacking frustration.

The Blues created 1.8 xG worth of chances against the Cherries without scoring and were particularly dynamic in the first half. They've posted at least 1.4 xG in all of their league games so far and with a net zero goal difference have the second-largest deficit in the Premier League relative to their xG difference (+4.9) ahead of only Everton.

Striker Nicolas Jackson has been the biggest culprit while trying to adjust to a new league, but at Bournemouth the missed chances were spread evenly across the squad, with the best chances by xG value falling to 20-year-old Levi Colwill.

Critics may say Pocchetino has been too patient with Jackson in the No. 9 role, playing him for all but eight of Chelsea's 450 Premier League minutes. At the same time, given a heavy injury list and the volume of good positions Jackson has found, you can understand the long leash.

With 3.3 non-penalty xG, Jackson is second in the Premier League behind only Manchester City's Erling Haaland.

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Aston Villa

There has been one guarantee in Villa's matches so far this season. There will be goals.

Manager Unai Emery's side have yet to play to a draw in eight matches between their league play and the UEFA Europa League. And in all of those games, the winner has scored at least three times to earn the three points.

In total, there have been 21 total goals scored and 19.2 xG created in Villa's five Premier League games. That's the second-highest total in the league, behind the 22 total goals and 19.4 xG generated in Brighton's games so far.

The Villains will be playing for a second time in less than 72 hours after they opened up the group stage of Conference League play with a 3-2 defeat at Legia Warsaw.

With a rotated squad, Jhon Duran and Lucas Digne each scored first-half levelers for Emery's side, but they couldn't overcome a third goal from the hosts early in the second half.


Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Pick & Prediction

Chelsea have been slumping for more than a season. But for most of that time, the xG numbers and other metrics under previous managers Graham Potter and Thomas Tuchel were as mediocre as the results.

That doesn't guarantee the Blues will earn results in line with their more promising analytic numbers under Pocchetino. But after only five games, there's still plenty of reason to believe it's possible in the long run

And if there was a time for Chelsea's attack to get well, it would come after a full week of training at home against a Villa side in their second away game in 72 hours that gets leaky when it goes behind.

That leaves me backing a regression to those xG numbers here by betting Chelsea to score three or more goals at +250 odds. It's certainly a higher-risk play on a team with the Blues' frustrations so far — but a calculated one that I'd probably be willing to take at anything better than 2-to-1 odds.

Pick: Chelsea to score over 2.5 goals (+250 via FanDuel)

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