France and Paraguay will take center stage at Lincoln Financial Field tonight at 5:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
France is priced as a -550 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Croatia is +1700 to pull off the upset in regulation. The over/under is set at 2.5 (-150/-120).
Below, you can find our France vs Paraguay World Cup predictions, which include picks for a number of betting markets: moneyline, over/under, props and more.
France vs Paraguay Picks & Props
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:00 p.m. | |
| 5:00 p.m. | |
| 5:00 p.m. | |
| 5:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our World Cup Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
France vs Paraguay Odds
| France Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -160 | 2.5 -150o / 120u | -550 |
| Paraguay Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 2.5 -150o / 120u | +1700 |
France vs Paraguay Moneyline Pick
France continues to excel on the back of a superstar lineup led by Kylian Mbappe and Michael Olise.
The odds on this are massive, so I suggest using it as a parlay leg, which you'll see more of below.
Anyways, Paraguay leaned into their defensive strengths to shock their way into the Round of 16, best seen in their 1-1 tie against Germany. Despite yielding possession and Germany dominating the game, Paraguay delivered when it mattered most, taking the lead and eventually taking the game to penalties.
Now facing one of the best attacking teams in the tournament (France has scored 13 goals in four games), Gustavo Alfaro’s side will have little hope of stopping Les Blues from scoring. Meanwhile, with their limited attacking output, the underlying metrics point towards a clean France win.
Paraguay’s 1.46 xG across four games ranks as the fourth-lowest in the tournament, while their 0.36 xG per 90 is second only to Tunisia. With limited attacking threat and a France defense that kept a far more dangerous Sweden side scoreless, there is little case for anything other than a France moneyline bet.
The last meeting between these sides came in a 2017 friendly, when France secured a 5-0 victory. While our internal model projects a more modest 2.51 expected goals for Les Bleus this time, Didier Deschamps’ side is still expected to record a comfortable win.
Pick: France Moneyline (-600)
France vs Paraguay Prop Pick
France has been the most efficient attacking team in the competition, with their superstar players delivering in every game. Kylian Mbappe is playing some of his best football, having already scored six goals. With Ousman Dembele’s four scored and Olise’s five assists, Les Bleus are easily one of the most dangerous sides in the tournament.
Paraguay’s defensive stability was exposed in a 4-1 loss against the USA, and although Los Guaraníes held their own against Germany, France is simply on another level.
This bet has cashed in three of France’s four games at the 2026 World Cup. Only against Senegal did Les Bleus fail to score a first half goal.
The underlying metrics only further highlight France’s incredible attacking output, with no team taking more shots on target than Les Bleus with 34.
Paraguay’s defensive approach is reflected in the volume of pressure they’ve faced, with 81 shots against them, the most in the tournament so far. Only two teams have faced more shots on target, yet they’ve conceded just five goals. Regardless, Gustavo Alfaro’s side will face a France team that is converting 17.81% of their shots, suggesting a potential struggle to hold Les Bleus at bay.
Pick: France to Win Both Halves (+134)
France vs Paraguay Prop Pick
With France in such formidable form, and handed a 91.7% chance of progressing according to our in-house model, BETSiE, they simply can't be ignored.
To find any real betting value, the question is not if Didier Deschamps’ side will win, but how.
Paraguay looks set to present a stubborn roadblock. They have averaged the most tackles (25) and clearances (40) per game in the tournament so far. Relying on a passive, low-intensity press, their strategy will be to sit deep and absorb pressure.
Since June 2025, France has won six competitive matches while keeping a clean sheet. Facing a conservative Paraguay side that failed to score last year against Brazil, Ecuador, and Australia, this fixture looks primed to be another routine success for Les Bleus.
Pick: France to Win to Nil (-152)
France vs Paraguay Over/Under Pick
Paraguay's blueprint to success against France will look very much like the performance versus Germany in the Round of 32. The South American nation was stubborn, resilient, and able to find the net from a limited pool of opportunities.
Julio Enciso’s strike in the 42nd-minute sent Paraguay into half-time at 1-0, despite creating just 0.19 xG from three shots in the opening 45 minutes. Paraguay ended the game with just 0.35 xG, but it was enough to navigate their way into extra time and then penalties, where Germany uncharacteristically lost a penalty shootout.
Therefore, we should expect a similar approach from Paraguay here against France. The Paraguay defense will aim to be compact and disrupt France’s forwards in possession when receiving the ball in dangerous areas. However, limiting Kylian Mbappe, Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele, among others, will prove very difficult.
France has scored a minimum of three goals in all four of their games, including the 3-0 victory against Sweden in the Round of 32. Still, given Paraguay’s likely defensive approach and willingness for this to be a low-scoring contest, we predict France will win, with fewer than four goals scored in the fixture.
Pick: France to Win, Under 4 Total Goals (-245)
