Girona vs Alaves Odds
| Girona Odds | -188 |
| Alaves Odds | +500 |
| Draw | +320 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -143 / +110 |
To close out the soccer weekend in Spain, second-place Girona host Alavés at Estadi Montilivi for Monday Night Futbol.
The home side is having an incredible season, coming into this fixture with 41 points and 13 wins in 16 matches.
Meanwhile, the visitors are off to a solid start to the campaign, sitting in 12th with 16 points.
Both squads are pushing for a result for different reasons, which should give us an entertaining match in La Liga.
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Girona
After 16 matches, I don’t believe many fans would have expected Girona to be at the top of the league standings. Girona also have the most wins and goals scored in the league.
The lone defeat came against Real Madrid, which makes you wonder how long the club can carry this lead into the new year.
Girona have multiple players with at least four league goals, including Artem Dovbyk. The Ukranian attacker has been one of the signings of the season, scoring eight goals and assisting another four.
Manager Míchel will be missing a key striker in this match with Cristhian Stuani out suspended. However, he should have plenty of other attacking pieces to get a result here.
Alaves
Alaves returned to the Spanish top flight after a season in the second tier, where the club secured promotion through the playoffs.
If the team wants to stick around, manager Luis García’s side needs to start picking up results on the road.
Away from home, Alaves have failed to secure a win and only picked up three points in eight road trips in La Liga.
García’s team has solid metrics defensively, ranking in the top half of the table in expected goals and big chances allowed according to fbref.com. If the attack can catch up to the defense, this could be a strong season.
Girona vs Alaves
Prediction
When I dive into this game, I want to back the home side to get a result, but I feel there’s more value than what is offered on the moneyline or spread.
So, my best bet will be a Single Game Parlay, pairing a Girona win with the total falling under five goals via bet365 at -120 odds.
I mentioned Alaves’ struggles away from home, which also shows against the tougher opposition. On the road against the top 10 sides, the newly promoted team has a -4.1 xGDiff and lost all four of those games.
This is the same squad that has allowed multiple goals in three of those matches. With two starting defenders out for this fixture, Girona should be able to create chances.
Meanwhile, the league leaders have won all four league games at home against the Bottom 10 clubs, sporting a +3.3 xGDiff and averaging 1.83 expected goals per match.
For the total, only one of Alaves’ 16 league fixtures has finished with more than five goals. Most of Girona’s high-scoring games have happened on the road, with just one match at the Estadio Montiilivi having at least six goals.
You could just play Girona on the Asian handicap line of -1 if you want to avoid the total for the SGP, but I like this value to get a win if the home side wins by exactly one.
