Group B kicks off the final round of group games as Canada hosts Switzerland while Bosnia and Herzegovina take on Qatar.
This group's advancement scenarios are relatively straightforward. After I discuss that, I'll find some futures bets based on my tournament simulations.
Group B
Advancement Scenarios
- Canada: All but advanced. Will clinch group with win/draw vs. Switzerland. Almost guaranteed second with a loss, would only end up third if Bosnia and Herzegovina win and flip a goal difference of 9 or more on Canada. Canada would still almost surely advance as a third-place team on four points.
- Switzerland: All but advanced. Will clinch group with win vs. Canada. Almost guaranteed second with a loss, would only end up third if Qatar win and flip a goal difference of 9 or more on Switzerland. Switzerland would still almost surely advance as a third-place team on four points.
- Bosnia and Herzegovina: Out with a loss, almost surely out with a draw. A win likely sends them through as a third-place team on four points. Could finish second in the group if they win, Canada lose, and they flip a 9-goal differential on Canada.
- Qatar: Out with a loss or a draw. A win likely sends them through as a third-place team on four points. Could finish second in the group if they win, Switzerland lose, and they flip a 9-goal differential on Switzerland.
Futures
Switzerland and Canada are both fairly priced in the futures markets by my simulations, so the value may lie with the other teams in this group.
I sprinkled a little on Qatar to beat Bosnia and Herzegovina, but if the Bosnians win there is value on them to get eliminated in the Round of 32.
My simulations have their tournament ending in the first knockout stage at 50.3% but you can get this bet at +110 at theScore, for an implied probability of 47.6%.
That's a 2.7% edge and is the best futures bet from Group B.
Pick: Bosnia and Herzegovina Stage of Elimination – Round of 32 (+110 at theScore)
