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La Liga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Wager From Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid (Feb. 5-6)

La Liga Betting Odds, Picks, Preview, Predictions: Our 3 Best Bets, Including Wager From Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid (Feb. 5-6) article feature image
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Oscar J. Barroso / AFP7 via Getty Images. Pictured: Barcelona winger Adama Traoré.

  • Things return to action in the La Liga this weekend after the international break, with an intriguing card on the slate.
  • The featured match is a high-profile showdown between Spanish giants Barcelona and Atlético Madrid.
  • Soccer analyst Brett Pund takes a deep dive into the card and delivers his top selections.

Following a brief international break, all 20 La Liga teams will be in action this weekend, with great betting value located across the Spanish top flight.

Real Madrid enters the latest set of fixtures with a four-point lead on Sevilla in the league standings. Meanwhile, the race for the fourth Champions League place is wide open and could include up to six teams in the running for it.

The slate’s headliner features Atlético Madrid’s trip to the Camp Nou to face Barcelona in Sunday’s heavyweight clash, with the sides entering the match just a point off each other in the table. Both clubs picked up reinforcements during the January transfer window and have their sights set on European qualification for next season.

Elsewhere, Real Madrid looks to build on its lead at the top of the table with a win at home against Granada, while Sevilla hopes to keep pace at Osasuna. Real Betis hosts Villarreal in the match following Sunday’s headliner, plus there are multiple relegation six-pointers for vital points at the bottom of the table.

The table is set, so here are my three best bets in La Liga this weekend.

La Liga Best Bets

Elche vs. Alavés

Elche Odds +140
Alavés Odds +215
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (+135 / -165)
Day | Time Saturday | 8 a.m. ET
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My first best bet comes from a vital match toward the foot of the league table, where I believe all the value is with the home team.

Elche comes into the game unbeaten in its last four contests, which includes a draw at Real Madrid and home victory against Villarreal. Both of those teams are much better than visiting Alavés.

This is the same Alavés team that hasn’t won a league game since a 2-1 victory over Levante back on Nov. 6, while also posting a -6.6 expected goals difference over its last six matches, according to fbref.com.

Things haven’t been much better on the road for manager Javier Calleja’s team, losing seven of 10 away league fixtures and its last four matches by a combined goal difference of 13-3 in the process.

Meanwhile, Elche has only lost two contests at home this campaign, which came against the league leader and Real Betis.

I’m choosing to play the home team at -0.25 on the spread line via the Asian Handicap at +105, but I don’t hate the play on the Draw No Bet market if you can get anything under -135 odds.

Pick: Elche -0.25 (+105)

Barcelona vs. Atlético Madrid

Barcelona Odds +135
Atlético Madrid Odds +210
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | Time Sunday | 10:15 a.m. ET
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In the main event, I think this should be a great game where I’m expecting both teams to find the back of the net, which sets up to be one of the weekend’s more entertaining matches.

The Both Teams to Score wager has cashed in four of the last six games in the league for both teams, with the same bet being profitable in the home and road splits for the sides.

For Barcelona’s home league fixtures, both teams have scored in seven of those 10 affairs (70%) games at an average of three goals per game. Meanwhile, the percentage is even higher for Atlético Madrid games, with the same bet cashing in 82 percent of its La Liga away matches.

The teams have been creating a lot of chances recently as well, with Xavi’s side averaging 1.7 xG per game over the last six league contests. In the same span, Diego Simeone’s team has posted an average of 1.33 xG and scored in all but one outing.

When you add in the fact Barcelona added more attacking talent in the transfer window, I think there’s great value for both teams to find the back of the net in this meeting.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-130)

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Real Betis vs. Villarreal

Real Betis Odds +140
Villarreal Odds +195
Draw +255
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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If there’s one game to challenge the headliner for best entertainment value, it’s this matchup between high-flying Real Betis and Villarreal.

Starting with the visitors, the Yellow Submarine has been playing some high-scoring games over the last couple of months, with eight of their last 10 contests clearing 2.5 goals across all competitions.

Manager Unai Emery’s side, which is having to make up for a slow start in the league to qualify for the UCL next season, has averaged 2.32 expected goals per match in its last six La Liga games, with the combined xG average in those same games being 3.02 overall.

Betis is also in the same boat, finishing over the same total in 8 of 10 games overall as well. Manager Manuel Pellegrini’s team has scored 15 goals in the last six league fixtures, generating an average of 1.82 xG per 90 minutes during that same span.

You can also look at how Betis has performed at home, where it has posted 1.84 xG per match to go with an average of 3.18 total goals at the Benito Villamarín Stadium.

I’m going to lay the larger price and play the total going over 2.5 goals at -135 odds. If your book offers totals of 2.75 or three, I don’t dislike either of those wagers if you want a better price.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (-135)

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