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Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad La Liga Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions For Wednesday

Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad La Liga Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions For Wednesday article feature image

Juan Manuel Serrano Arce/Getty Images. Pictured: Mikel Oyarzabal.

  • Real Sociedad are surprise leaders in La Liga this season, but they are still underdogs against a struggling Barcelona squad on Wednesday afternoon.
  • Is the betting market still too high on Barca? Or is now the time to buy the Catalan Giants?
  • BJ Cunningham previews Wednesday's La Liga headliner:

Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad Odds

Barcelona odds -159 [BET NOW]
Real Sociedad odds +375 [BET NOW]
Draw +340 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (-117/-104) [BET NOW]
Time Wednesday, 3:00 p.m. ET
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Odds as of Tuesday at 5:15 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Barcelona look to continue to turn their La Liga season around on Wednesday when they take on top-of-the-table Real Sociedad.

Barcelona have gotten off to an incredibly slow start and find themselves eighth. It is early in the season, but the Spanish giants cannot afford to drop any more points or else Real Sociedad, Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid could create too big of a gap at the top of the table to overcome.

Real Sociedad are enjoying one of the greatest starts in the club’s history, as they are atop the La Liga table after 13 matches, level on points with Atletico Madrid, who have two games in hand. Signings like former Premier League standouts David Silva, who will miss this match due to injury, and Nacho Monreal have done well for Sociedad this season.

However, this is one of the biggest tests of the season for manager Imanol Alguacil’s side, as it has had a pretty easy league schedule up to this point.

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Based on their standards, Barcelona haven’t been their usual dominant selves this season. Barca have already dropped 13 points in their first eight matches, which is almost unheard of for a Lionel Messi-led team. However, it may not be long before they break out of this rut.

Based on expected goals, Barcelona is the highest scoring team in La Liga at 2.16 expected goals (xG) per match. However, a lot of that is due to them beating up on the bottom of the table. In matches against Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid and Sevilla, Barcelona averaged only 1.40 xG per game. Compare that to their other eight matches against lesser opponents where they are averaging 2.44 xG per match.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Barca’s main issues have come in defense this season. They’re allowing 1.36 xG per match, which isn’t bad for most clubs. However, Barcelona isn’t most clubs. Last season, Barcelona allowed under 1.00 xG per match, so improvements need to come in a hurry.

Real Sociedad

This Real Sociedad team is absolutely legit. Not only do they have the best goal differential in La Liga, but they also have the best expected goal differential at +13.2.

Offensively, they have the second-best expected goals per match in La Liga at 1.78 and have three different attackers averaging over 0.50 xG per 90 minutes — Mikel Oyarzabal, Adnan Januzaj and Alexander Isak. In fact, over the last six matches they are averaging 1.92 xG per match, so they will give Barcelona’s defense all they can handle.

Real Sociedad has also been rock solid defensively, as they have the best defense in Spain on a per match basis. Real Sociedad is allowing only 0.83 xG per match and 0.80 xG on the road. Messi & Co. will be their toughest test to date, but I think the league leaders will be up to the challenge.

Projections and Pick

I think Real Sociedad is primed and ready for this match. Barcelona, without a doubt, needs a win on Wednesday to keep pace with the top of the table. Real Sociedad’s surge to the top of the table is absolutely legitimate, which I think has caused Barcelona to be a tad overvalued in this match.

I’ll take the league leaders’ spread of +0.5 at +133 odds. However, I would only play it down to +125.

Pick: Real Sociedad +0.5 (+133)

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