Liverpool vs. Tottenham Hotspur Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Spurs Can Get a Result
Andrew Couldridge/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham Hotspur star Harry Kane, left, celebrates his goal with teammates.
- Liverpool hosts Tottenham Hotspur in a battle of Premier League heavyweights Wednesday at Anfield.
- The Reds hold the tiebreaker edge over Spurs at the top of the table on 25 points.
- Anthony Dabbundo tells us why he likes Spurs to keep it close.
Liverpool vs. Spurs Odds
|Liverpool Odds||-130 [BET NOW]|
|Spurs Odds||+350 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+285 [BET NOW]|
|Day/Time||3 p.m. ET|
The top two teams in the Premier League meet Wednesday when Tottenham Hotspur travels north to face defending champion Liverpool at Anfield.
Spurs have been surprise leaders at this point in the season, while Liverpool have fallen off the historic pace it set to start the 2019-20 campaign. However, the Redsare still the second favorite to win the title despite mounting injuries.
Let’s take a look at this game and what’s on deck.
If you’re just looking at expected goals, Liverpool is the best team in the league so far this year. Despite the injuries that keep piling up, the Reds are just a few ticks ahead of Chelsea and Manchester City atop the xG table.
The injury to Virgil van Dijk hasn’t actually impacted Liverpool’s xGA much, and if anything, its defense has slightly improved since his departure. The Reds aren’t pressing quite as much without him because of the vulnerabilities in their back line.
Liverpool had a setback at the weekend against Fulham, settling for a point in a match it easily could have lost. When the Reds have their four best progressive passers in the lineup — Trent Alexander-Arnold, Andy Robertson, Sadio Mané and Mo Salah — they can be very difficult to defend. They’ve produced five more xG over the course of the season than any other team, but also have the fifth-worst defense.
The balance for Jurgen Klopp will be incredibly important in this fixture. When these teams met last year, Liverpool earned a 1-0 win. However, Spurs had the edge on xG and found holes in the Reds’ defense on the counter attack.
That also happened without Harry Kane. If Liverpool overdo its pressing style, Spurs might play right through it.
Chelsea was very careful to avoid getting exposed by Spurs, keeping its fullbacks out of the attack for much of the match. Liverpool are less likely to do that, given how much of its creativity is reliant on the backs. That will leave room for Spurs to counter.
The visiting side hasn’t lost since the league’s opening day, going unbeaten in 11 matches since in England’s top flight. Spurs took seven of nine possible points in a difficult stretch of fixtures against Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal, but slipped up with a 1-1 draw Sunday against Crystal Palace.
There are two things simultaneously happening with Spurs xG numbers that are important to point out before betting their matches. Spurs are fourth in non-penalty xG difference, which means they’ve been rather fortunate to be atop the table. However, game state and their manager’s philosophy are playing a role in why the underlying numbers are where they are.
No team has spent more time leading in league games than Tottenham, and it doesn’t typically continue attacking at the same rate when in front. That said, it impacts its xGF and xGA numbers. Spurs have scored eight goals in the opening 15 minutes, which has been the product of unsustainable finishing.
We really haven’t seen Spurs play a more open, attacking style because they haven’t had to. When Spurs matches are tied or they are trailing, they’ve had no issues creating chances. They’re producing 1.51 xG per 90 when tied and 2.26 xG per 90 when trailing in contests.
We don’t have enough data to judge how Spurs will play in neutral-state games, largely because of the absurd and bound-to-regress finishing from Kane and Son Heung-min early in games.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I make Liverpool a minus-110 favorite in this match, with the current price sitting at -130 at DraftKings.
I show some value on Spurs, and knowing José Mourinho’s tactics and record in these types of games, I expect Spurs to grab at least a point at Anfield.
Liverpool will dominate the possession, but Mourinho’s converted back six in defense have proven difficult to score on.
Picks: Spurs +0.5 (+110)