La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions | Expert Analysis For Vallecano vs Sevilla, More

La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions | Expert Analysis For Vallecano vs Sevilla, More article feature image

Denis Doyle/Getty. Pictured: Lucas Ocampos.

Following a busy midweek with European competitions returning, there will be great soccer all over Spain this weekend in La Liga.

Barcelona, winners of six straight, hold an eight-point lead at the top of the table coming into Matchday 22. Meanwhile, Real Madrid are fresh off winning the Club World Cup for the eighth time in the club’s history.

My betting attention starts with a pair of matches on Saturday, which includes Real Betis welcoming Valladolid to the Estadio Benito Villamarín. I close out the week with one of the biggest surprises of the season in Rayo Vallecano, who host Sevilla on Sunday.

Since the return from the World Cup break, the Spanish top flight has been a tricky division to handicap, but I plan to get back on track with my three best bets in La Liga this weekend.

La Liga Odds, Picks, Predictions

Real Betis vs Valladolid

Betis Odds


Valladolid Odds

Over/Under2.5 (+100 / -125)
Day | TimeSaturday |  10:15 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In my first pick, we could have an entertaining affair because of the recent defensive struggles for Betis. Since the World Cup, manager Manuel Pellegrini’s side has allowed 1.51 xG and 2.43 big chances per 90 minutes, according to

This has led to the team earning just two clean sheets in the seven matches. Meanwhile, this was already the club that ranked 16th in La Liga for the fewest big chances allowed at home this season.

On the flip side, Betis have been performing well in attack, averaging 1.51 xG during this stretch. The home side should find success against a Valladolid defense that enters this match in the bottom four in big chances given up per road game (3.2).

This same bet has cashed in 60% of all home fixtures and 3-of-4 against sides in the bottom half of the table for Real Betis. It has also hit in 4-of-7 for the visitors when away from home against top 10 clubs.

Pund's Pick: Over 2.5 (+100)

Mallorca vs Villarreal

Mallorca Odds


Villarreal Odds

Over/Under2.5 (+175 / -225)
Day | TimeSaturday |  12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

If I’m expecting goals in my first pick, I can’t say the same thing for Villarreal’s trip to Mallorca, which should be played at the host’s tempo.

The home and road splits for the Yellow Submarine is of the biggest discrepancies in the league. They hold a -5.8 xGDiff on the road compared to a mark of +8.1 at home. They also only average 0.98 expected goals and 1.73 big chances per match away from El Madrigal.

When they travel to play a team in the top half of the league table, Villarreal own a -4.1 xGDiff and has lost in 4-of-5 matches. It is going to be difficult to buck these trends against a Mallorca side that only has three home losses this season.

To make matters worse, the visitors will be without attacking players Gerard Moreno, Nicolas Jackson and Gionavi Lo Celso. If you add the fact that Arnaut Danjuma was sold in the transfer window, the Yellow Submarine will be missing players who have played a direct role in 67% of their league goals.

This should help the total to fall under three goals for the other piece of this parlay, which has hit in 9-of-10 at home for Mallorca and in 80% of Villarreal’s road games.

Pund's Pick: Single Game Parlay – Mallorca Double Chance & Under 3 Goals (+105)

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Rayo Vallecano vs Sevilla

Rayo Odds


Sevilla Odds

Over/Under2.5 (+130/ -163)
Day | TimeSunday |  10:15 a.m. ET
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Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

In my final best bet of the weekend, I’m going to continue to fade Sevilla on the road. The Andalusian club has a -10.7 xGDiff away from home this season, which is only better than Valladolid and Elche.

This has not improved since the World Cup break, as Sevilla own a -5 xGDiff and have allowed 2.3 xG per road match against Celta Vigo, Girona and Barcelona. This is also the same team who has a -7.7 xGDiff and four losses in seven fixtures on the road against top 10 sides.

As for the host, Rayo Vallecano continue to impress, especially at home. When playing a club in the bottom half of the table at the Estadio de Vallecas, Rayo have won 4-of-6 fixtures and have not lost to any of those opponents.

I’m electing to go a little more conservative with the Asian handicap line of -0.25, but I don’t hate taking the home side on the moneyline at a better price.

Pund's Pick: Rayo Vallecano -0.25 (+111)

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