Leicester City vs. Burnley Odds, Picks, Prediction: How To Back Unlucky Clarets in EPL Battle (Sept. 25)

Leicester City vs. Burnley Odds, Picks, Prediction: How To Back Unlucky Clarets in EPL Battle (Sept. 25) article feature image
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Photo by Paul Gilham/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Dyche

Leicester City vs. Burnley Odds

Leicester City Odds -175
Burnley Odds +500
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

It hasn’t been the start that either team has wanted for this Premier League season, but they both will be looking to turn that around on Saturday as Burnley makes the trip to the King Power Stadium to take on Leicester City.

The two squads will be carrying some momentum into the fixture as both secured convincing wins in midweek EFL Cup action over lower-division squads to progress to the Round of 16.

All the history of this match sides with Leicester as the Foxes are unbeaten in their last 10 league matches at home against the Clarets, but Burnley is always up for a battle in any game and never easy to beat.

Leicester City Off to Slow Start This Season

After a 2020-21 season that ended with winning the FA Cup and a fifth-place finish in the Premier League to qualify for the Europa League, something just doesn’t seem right at the start of this campaign for Leicester and it’s hard to figure out why.

Brendan Rodgers was able to keep most of his squad intact, while spending big in the summer transfer market to add striker Patson Daka (RB Salzburg), holding midfielder Boubakary Soumaré (Lille) and center back Jannik Vestergaard (Southampton).

It always takes time for new signings to gel, but most would have thought the momentum from last season would have carried over with the experienced members of the squad.

If you look at the advanced metrics through five matches, it has been a real struggle offensively for the Foxes, ranking towards the bottom of the league in expected goals (xG) at 5.4 and shots per 90 minutes (9.00), according to fbref.com.

It hasn’t been much better defensively either, posting an xG against (9.5) that sits in the bottom five in the Premier League.

When you add it all up, you can see how Leicester has only picked up victories at home against Wolves and at Norwich to go along with defeats to West Ham, Man City and Brighton.

Frustrated Burnley Due to Produce More Goals 

Burnley enters Saturday in the relegation zone and only has one point against Leeds through five matches. Manager Sean Dyche will be disappointed with the start, but if you look deeper into the games, he will feel a bit unlucky to be in the position he is in.

The Clarets only have three goals on 5.7 xG and have a -0.5 xG difference per match average, although they have won the xG battle in two of five matches.

Throughout its recent history in the top-flight, Burnley has always found a way with lesser talent to avoid the drop, which is a testament to Dyche. The Clarets have the experience to turn it around, but they need to start turning around results quickly.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Even considering the form of both teams coming into the weekend, Leicester enters as a pretty strong favorite at -175 on the moneyline or -1 (+105) on the Asian handicap via DraftKings, which is way too heavy of a price for how they have played this season.

I’ll be taking the away side Burnley on the Asian handicap of +1 at -120 in this match.

In order to lose this bet, the Foxes have to score at least two goals, and after all of the difficulties I mentioned above, I think it’s good value to bet against that happening.

Leicester has only scored multiple goals in one league match this season, which came against bottom-of-the-table Norwich.

Looking back to last season, Burnley played better away from home, racking up more points and wins on the road.

Dyche will have his team prepared for this trip, and I think they can frustrate Leicester enough to keep this game closer than the current odds. The Foxes also may be looking ahead to their trip on Thursday to Poland for the Europa League match at Legia Warsaw.

Pick: Burnley +1 (-120)

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