Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions: Projections & 4 Favorite Bets, Including Manchester City & Burnley (Sept. 25-27)

Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions: Projections & 4 Favorite Bets, Including Manchester City & Burnley (Sept. 25-27) article feature image
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Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City star Jack Grealish.

  • We have another stacked Premier League slate in front of us this weekend, with several interesting matches on deck.
  • Leading the way is a showdown between powerhouses Chelsea and Manchester City.
  • Anthony Dabbundo and BJ Cunningham team up below to deliver their best bets and projections for the busy schedule.

This Premier League weekend marks the first time there are two marquee matchups on deck. Defending champions Manchester City faces Chelsea at Stamford Bridge to kick off Saturday’s action. On Sunday, Tottenham Hotspur visits Emirates Stadium to battle Arsenal in a North London Derby.

Those are the two high-profile games, but Liverpool has a tricky road trip to London to face upstart Brentford. West Ham United and Leeds United go at it in a battle of very entertaining teams. And the end of the era of no fans in stadiums has brought the return of the 10 a.m. ET mega kickoff, meaning there are four games in the main Saturday time slot.

It’s a loaded slate across all of Europe, but especially in the English top flight as Manchester United returns home to Old Trafford for an interesting matchup with Aston Villa.

The projections below are from fellow soccer analyst BJ Cunningham. If you’d like to read more about how his projections are formulated, you can check it all out here.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Chelsea vs. Manchester City

Chelsea Odds +155
Manchester City Odds +185
Draw +235
Over/Under 2.5 (+105 / -130)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Chelsea and Manchester City meet for the first time since the Blues pulled off the 1-0 upset in the Champions League final. They have beaten the Cityzens three times — once each in FA Cup, EPL and UCL action — after manager Thomas Tuchel took over as their manager in February.

Their expected goals were comparable, but not quite as dominant, given that Manchester City had the league locked up by March. Since the new season has began, the Cityzens have a +1.9 xG difference per 90 minutes and the league’s best player in Jack Grealish. Grealish leads the league in progressive passes, progressive carries and progressive passes received when you factor in per 90-minute rates.

When you factor out the 45 minutes the Blues played down a man at Liverpool, their adjusted xG difference is +0.9 xGDiff per 90 minutes. Beware of small, noisy sample sizes, but there’s no indication the host is the better team. I took Chelsea in all three matches last spring, but this line is showing too much respect.

That said, I’ll take Manchester City at even money on the Draw No Bet line as my top pick. If there’s a winner, it’s more likely to be the Cityzens.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Manchester City — Draw No Bet (-100)

Leicester City vs. Burnley

Leicester City Odds -170
Burnley Odds +500
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

No team has received a bigger downgrade since the season began in my power ratings than Leicester City, who is near the bottom in nearly every offensive category. The Foxes were a bit unfortunate to lose to Brighton & Hove Albion based on VAR decisions, but the performance was far from good.

Leicester City hasn’t won the xG battle in a single game this season, which includes a nine-shot showing against Norwich City, defeat on xG to Wolves and a Europa League thrashing to Napoli that ended in a 2-2 draw.

The Foxes rank bottom five in shot-creating actions and progressive passing, plus they’re not  getting much production from aging striker Jamie Vardy. Combine those things with the weird blip in James Maddison’s attacking numbers and with new striker Preston Daka’s slow start, and the result is a disappointing start.

Leicester City remains atop the fade list as the market continues to give them too much respect despite their poor performances to begin the season. Next up is Burnley, who played well and was unfortunate to not get a point against Arsenal based on the balance of the chances in the match. The Clarets also outplayed Everton for large stretches of that match, but came up empty.

These teams are closer right now than the line suggests and Burnley is undervalued to get a result out of the fixture.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Burnley +1 (-120 or better)

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Brentford vs. Liverpool

Brentford Odds +600
Liverpool Odds -210
Draw +340
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Liverpool has only conceded one goal in league play this season through five matches, despite allowing 5.1 xG so far. The Reds’ offense is fit and firing, but its defense has been a bit overrated. Given the quality of chances they’ve allowed, the Reds should have conceded more than they actually have.

Even with the best goalkeeper in the league as far as statistics in Alisson, Liverpool can’t sustain this defensive solidity forever. They’ve had a good run of defensive luck and opponents shooting poorly against them. In their midweek match in the Carabao Cup, Norwich City even missed a penalty.

Brentford has an excellent counterattacking duo through Bryan Mbeumo and Ivan Toney, whose combination play can give Liverpool trouble in transition. I don’t want to bet against the Reds’ offense at this number, especially considering the Bees’ defense is due for some defensive regression.

I show value on both teams to score at -120 odds or better, with the current number sitting at -105 odds. My projection puts both teams to score at 57.6%, which creates an implied -136 odds.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-105 or better)

Southampton vs. Wolves

Southampton Odds +165
Wolves Odds +185
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -135)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN } fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Southampton pulled off one of the more impressive results and performances of the season with its 0-0 draw at Manchester City last weekend. The Saints are the only team outside the big six to take any points off the top four of Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool, as they also tied the Red Devils in the second week of the season.

Southampton is still looking for their first win of the campaign as the draws have piled up, but they’ve been a bit unlucky in front of goal in recent weeks. The club has only scored two goals in its last three games despite generating 4.8 xG in those fixtures.

The Saints’ defense has also been much shakier than its last two clean sheets would suggest. Against a Wolves side that’s the league’s biggest under-performer in front of goal, we’re dealing with teams overdue for some positive offensive regression. Wolves have struggled against teams that apply pressure to the backline and made mistakes, which Southampton is sure to do.

On the other side, once teams break through Saints’ press, their defense has looked vulnerable. Wolves are one of the best teams in space in the league and will be able to produce chances. They have just two goals from seven xG and that will regress toward the mean over time.

My projections have both teams to score at -135, so anything at -120 or better is good when it comes to this selection.

Dabbundo’s Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (-120)

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