Wednesday MLS Betting Odds & Picks: Orlando City vs. Nashville, San Jose vs. Portland (Aug. 26)

Orlando City vs. Nashville Odds

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Plenty of excitement and surprises are likely in store on Wednesday’s Major League Soccer card, with several matches taking place across the country.

Headlining the early part on the evening schedule is an intriguing contest between Orlando City FC and expansion club Nashville SC at Exploria Stadium in Florida.

The hosts enter the match fresh off a disappointing 3-2 loss against in-state rival Inter Miami. There was little for the Lions to be happy about after the match, but rookie Daryl Dike took advantage of a rare start to finish with a goal and an assist in defeat.

Orlando City might have had an excuse, though. The club could have very well been playing on heavy legs following its brilliant showing at the MLS is Back tournament, where it lost to Portland in the championship.

On the other side, Nashville comes into this tilt hoping it can rebound from its 2-0 shutout defeat against Atlanta United on the weekend.

Nashville has been competitive in its first year on the MLS scene, giving up just five goals in five matches thus far. Its problems have been on the offensive side of things, where it’s only recorded two goals on 54 total shots.

When perusing the analytical data, it was kind of surprising to find the hosts featuring much lower numbers than the expansion side. Orlando City carries identical numbers of 2.1 expected goals and 2.1 expected goals against for an even xGDiff and -0.02 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

In contrast, Nashville is much better in the exact same categories (4.3 xGF/3.2 xGA = +1.1 xGDiff and +0.21 xGDiff/90), which makes things interesting when trying to handicap this match.

That said, I am looking for Orlando City to bounce back in style from that Inter Miami setback and put it to Nashville in this spot. Play the Lions on the three-way money line with confidence.

The Bet: Orlando City (-118) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

San Jose vs. Portland Odds

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The Earthquakes are in action for the first time since the MLS is Back tournament, where they shocked many and made it all the way to the quarterfinal round before falling to Minnesota United.

As for the Timbers, the players and staff endured a reality check Sunday when they gave up three second-half goals en route to a 3-0 loss against rival Seattle in Portland. It was a beyond stunning turn of events for the club, which had just returned to the Great Northwest with the MLS is Back championship trophy in tow.

Looking at the numbers of these sides, Portland holds a minor edge over its foe. The visitors are currently at 2.8 expected goals and 3.9 expected goals against for a -0.9 xGDiff and -0.30 xGDiff/90 minutes.

As for San Jose, the club is behind Portland (2.6 xGF/4.2 xGA = -1.6 xGDiff and -0.79 xGDiff/90) in the same categories. The Earthquakes are last in the Western Conference in the latter two categories as well.

When handicapping this match, I really like San Jose to get a result against Portland. The Earthquakes are rested and ready to roll, plus you have to think Portland will make wholesale changes after such a quick turnaround between fixtures.

I am also backing the total to go over the number. Four of the last five meetings between these clubs have ended with three goals on the scoreboard and I see that trend continuing at a minimum in this latest showdown.

The Bets: San Jose – Draw Not Bet (-186); Total Over 3 Goals (-127) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]