MLS Is Back Odds and Picks (Friday, July 31): Betting Predictions for LAFC vs. Orlando City

LAFC vs. Orlando City

Odds as of Friday at 5:40 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

More excitement and high stakes take center stage Friday at the MLS is Back Tournament, with favored Los Angeles Football Club taking on Orlando City in another quarterfinal match in Florida.

The winner moves on to the semifinals, where it will face either Minnesota United or San Jose for a spot in the championship at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex in Orlando.

LAFC enters the match fresh off a 4-1 thrashing of defending MLS Cup champion Seattle in their Round of 16 contest. Manager Bob Bradley could not have asked for anything more from his balanced and dynamic offense, which has scored 15 goals in four games at the showcase.

Standout Diego Rossi has a tournament-high seven goals for LAFC, which boasted a +3.7 expected goals differential entering the knockout stage and should cause plenty of problems for Orlando City’s defense.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

On the other side, Orlando City reached this quarterfinal with a 1-0 shutout win against Montreal. It has been sort of a dream run for the Eastern Conference side, which won Group A with a 2-0-1 record. Many pundits doubted Orlando City, which was practically even on xGDiff (+0.3) and xGDiff/90 minutes (+0.09) after the group phase, but the club has silenced its critics and is a victory from reaching the semifinal round.

Oddsmakers have rightfully tabbed LAFC as a big favorite and the numbers more than back it up in my opinion. The club is tops in the FiveThirtyEight Soccer Power Index at 58.6 points, which is well ahead of Orlando City (37.5 points) in the overall SPI numbers.

LAFC also has a whopping 72% chance of making the semifinal round, with Orlando City last out of the seven remaining clubs (28%), according to FiveThirtyEight’s data.

That all said, I am backing these two teams to go over three goals and playing LAFC to score at least two goals in this match. Despite missing star Carlos Vela the entire competition, LAFC has been firing on all cylinders and should have its way against Orlando City in this affair.

Toss in the fact these clubs combined to score nine goals in their prior two meetings and you have to like the chances of this being an electric showdown.

The numbers are right at the moment, so I recommend getting the plays in before the anticipated late money comes in on these wagers.

The Picks: Over 3 (-157); LAFC Team Total Over 1.5 (-200)

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