Nashville SC vs. Portland Timbers Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Betting Value Sitting on Over/Under in MLS Affair (July 3)
Bill Barrett/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Nashville SC goalkeeper Joe Willis.
Nashville vs. Portland Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-115 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 8:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Nashville SC hosts Portland at the new GEODIS Park in Major League Soccer action Sunday in a huge Western Conference showdown.
The hosts need to pick themselves up following the heartbreaking midweek loss in the U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal round, which included a stoppage-time equalizer by Orlando City before falling on penalty kicks.
As for the visitors, the Timbers come into the fixture with two consecutive home victories against Colorado Rapids and Houston. However, they have struggled away from Providence Park this season.
Both sides played games earlier this week, so we could see some tired legs lead to a slower pace and less offensive firepower in this contest.
You have to wonder if there will be some rotation to Nashville’s lineup after fielding a squad filled with regulars in Wednesday’s game that went all the way to penalties.
Meanwhile, this also could be a great opportunity to get the sour taste out of the club’s mouth with a victory in front of the home crowd, which has been hard to come by of late.
In the last three matches at its new stadium, Nashville has failed to pick up all three points against lesser competition in Sporting Kansas City, San Jose and Atlanta United. So, the club desperately needs that trend to change to stay in playoff contention.
By The Numbers
- 0.85 — Nashville has held its opponents to this average of expected goals per 90 minutes at home this season, according to fbref.com.
- 2.38 — In the five matches at GEODIS Park, this mark has been the average combined xG per game.
If you think back to last season, Portland’s campaign got off to a slow start before closing the year as one of the hottest teams, resulting in the appearance in MLS Cup title match.
The Timbers are hoping the last three fixtures are the start of another great run to secure a place in the playoffs, which includes two wins and a draw.
One primary reason the team finds itself in this position has been the play away from Portland, where the club only has one win in nine games.
By The Numbers
- -6.6 — The Timbers own a negative xGDiff on the road this season, plus they haven’t won the xG battle in any of those games.
- 0.93 — Portland hasn’t generated as much expected goals per 90 minutes away from home as opposed to at Providence Park (1.8) this season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Making wagers on games to stay under the total in MLS can be a frustrating adventure, but I think this game presents an excellent spot for a low-scoring affair. That said, my best bet is for the total to stay under 2.5 goals at -115 odds via PointsBet in this matchup.
Nashville comes into this contest with the best expected goals allowed per match average (1.07) in the entire league, which bodes well against a Portland side that struggles to create chances on the road.
Once you add in the tired legs and possible rotation due to grueling midweek fixtures, I’m not expecting many fireworks in this contest.
The Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
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