Pafos FC (1-2-3) and Chelsea (3-2-1) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Stamford Bridge in London.
Chelsea is favored at a -667 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (-115o / -111u) goals.
Let's get into my Pafos FC vs. Chelsea prediction.
Pafos FC vs. Chelsea Prediction
Pick: Chelsea to Win
My Pafos FC vs. Chelsea best bet is on the Chelsea moneyline.
Pafos FC vs. Chelsea Odds
| Pafos FC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -140 | 3.5 -115o / -111u | +1694 |
| Chelsea Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -102 | 3.5 -115o / -111u | -667 |
Pafos FC vs. Chelsea Pick
Pick: Chelsea to Win
The primary pick centers on Chelsea’s ability to control this matchup against a Pafos attack that has struggled badly in European competition. While Chelsea’s defense had been inconsistent, the Blues recently recorded their first clean sheet in eight matches, and this fixture offers a strong opportunity to build on that result.
Pafos have shown clear offensive limitations when stepping up in competition. The Cypriot side averages just 0.7 goals per game in the Champions League and has yet to score in any of its away matches. That lack of output is reflected in their expected goals (xG) total of 5.6, the third-lowest figure in the tournament, suggesting these struggles are structural rather than down to bad luck.
Even with the youngest squad in the competition, Chelsea’s overall quality should prove decisive. Players like Cole Palmer, who has been directly involved in four goals across his last three European appearances, give the Blues enough attacking edge to secure the result. Given Pafos’s attacking issues on the road, backing Chelsea to win stands out as the most straightforward and reliable angle in this matchup.
Pafos FC vs. Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Pafos FC | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | 10.1% | 86.1% |
Projected Total Goals
| Pafos FC | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | 3.53 | 3.03 |
Pafos FC vs. Chelsea Betting Analysis
This matchup is a must-win for Chelsea as they look to improve their position in the Champions League standings. History strongly favors the English side at home. Chelsea are unbeaten in their last 14 home games in the Champions League league phase, a run that includes 10 victories. More recently, they have won five straight matches at Stamford Bridge, posting an impressive aggregate score of 9-1.
This will be the first-ever meeting between Chelsea and Pafos. Chelsea do, however, have an unbeaten record against Cypriot clubs, with one win and one draw against APOEL during the 2009-10 season. For Pafos, this marks their debut Champions League campaign and their first encounter with a Premier League opponent.
Pafos have shown some defensive resilience, but the underlying numbers paint a team under constant pressure. No side in the competition allows more shots per game than Pafos, who concede an average of 20.5 attempts. While their opponents’ conversion rate sits at a modest 7.32%, the sheer volume of chances conceded is a major concern against a side with Chelsea’s attacking quality. That approach may hold against lesser opposition, but a top-tier European club is far more likely to find a breakthrough.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Pafos vs Chelsea picks.
