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Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Back These Plays in Eastern Conference Clash (June 26)

Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC Betting Odds, Preview, Picks: Back These Plays in Eastern Conference Clash (June 26) article feature image
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Minas Panagiotakis/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Union goalkeeper Andre Blake.

Philadelphia vs. NYCFC Odds

Philadelphia Odds +150
NYCFC Odds +170
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -120)
Day | Time Sunday | 6 p.m. ET
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Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

The most consistent Eastern Conference teams in Major League Soccer the last two seasons meet again Sunday when the Philadelphia Union hosts New York City FC in a crucial matchup.

NYCFC won these teams’ most important match to date in last year’s East final, which was a 2-1 extra-time triumph against a Union side missing six starters due to COVID-19 absences.

Philadelphia got some revenge back in March with a 2-0 victory at Yankee Stadium. Both teams drew 1-1 at home their last time out, which featured Philadelphia against FC Cincinnati and NYCFC facing Colorado.

Philadelphia Union

The Union have settled for draws in seven of their last eight matches, including last Saturday’s tie with Cincinnati.

Philadelphia has played to a +2.8 expected-goals difference in four home games and -2.1 xGDiff in four away matches during that stretch. However, the club has taken six points from the away matches, securing its only victory in the span via a 2-0 shutout against Portland.

Striker Mikael Uhre could make his first back-to-back starts since May 1 in this fixture. The former Danish league Golden Boot winner has scored only twice in MLS since his arrival while battling injuries and visa issues.

Team notes

  • Goalkeeper Andre Blake, along with defenders Kai Wagner and Jakob Glesnes, have played every minute for Philadelphia this season.
  • Midfielder/forward Paxten Aaronson, midfielder/forward Quinn Sullivan, midfielder Jack McGlynn and defender Brandon Craig are away with the US U-20 national team.

By The Numbers

  • 32.4 — The percentage of Union MLS minutes Uhre has played since signing a Designated Player contract before the season.
  • 13 — The total number of games in Philadelphia’s unbeaten run (eight wins and five draws) on home soil in league play.
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New York City FC

The Cityzens are navigating a coaching shift not of their own choosing after former boss Ronny Deila departed to take the reigns of Belgium side Standard Liege.

Interim manager Nick Cushing’s tenure began with a 1-1 home draw against Colorado last weekend. However, the Cityzens were thoroughly beaten in a 3-0 rout by rivals New York Red Bulls in Wednesday’s U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal across the Hudson River.

City has won its last two away league games games, albeit against clearly inferior opposition in Minnesota Untied and D.C. United.

Team notes

  • Forward Valentin Castellanos leads NYCFC with seven goals, but has only scored in four matches.
  • Forward Talles Magno, 19, has started in all but one of his 14 league appearances after featuring primarily off the bench last season.

By The Numbers

  • 4-0-0 — NYCFC’s record this season (W-L-D) when Castellanos scores.
  • 15.4 — The portion of the Cityzens’ total goals they’ve scored on away from home (4 of 26) this season.
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Betting Analysis & Picks

The total has stayed under 2.5 goals in all eight of Philadelphia’s home matches and four of NYCFC’s five away games.

The pressing Union sometimes are more comfortable going forward on the counterattacking opportunities that surface more regularly on the road. And NYCFC is a less dynamic attacking team away from the tight Yankee Stadium confines.

Additionally, NYCFC is simply getting too much credit for its home form applied to an away match.

When you add in the midweek match, the coaching change, Uhre finally getting some regular rhythm and the metrics that suggest Philadelphia is due for a home win, I have to take the home side here.

At +150 odds you’re backing a 40% probability of a victory. Given how Yankee Stadium can distort NYCFC’s abilities, see these teams as even, in a league where the home team wins about 49% of the time.

The Picks: Philadelphia ML (+150) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-120)

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