Premier League Odds, Predictions & Picks (Tuesday, July 14): Chelsea vs. Norwich City
Mark Leech/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: Ruben Loftus-Cheek
- Tuesday's Premier League action features heavy favorites Chelsea (-910 odds) against Norwich City (+2400 underdog) at 3 p.m. ET on NBCSN.
- In analyzing the matchup, Michael Leboff notes the value may be on the over/under.
- See his analysis of the matchup, including his pick below.
Premier League: Norwich City at Chelsea Odds, Pick
|Chelsea odds||-910 [BET NOW]|
|Norwich City odds||+2400 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+900 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-113/-110) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Tuesday, 3:15 p.m. ET|
Weird things happen in sports. You don’t need me to remind you that anything can happen in between the lines. It’s why we watch. It’s why we bet.
That being said, it’s really hard to imagine a way for Norwich City to beat Chelsea on Tuesday afternoon. That sentiment is certainly reflected in the betting market. When you convert the listed implied probability, you get:
- Chelsea: 84.6% win probability
- Draw: 10.6%
- Norwich City: 4.8%
The Canaries were officially relegated by way of their 4-0 loss to West Ham on Saturday and Daniel Farke’s side are in the midst of an eight-game losing streak across all competitions. Project Restart has been especially cruel to Norwich, who have scored once and conceded 15 times in their six Premier League matches since play resumed.
Getting up for a match like this in normal times would be tough, but having to play out the string in an empty stadium makes it even more of a grind for the Championship-bound Canaries.
While the Canaries have been tough to watch over the past month, Chelsea have been an absolute roller coaster since play resumed. The Blues have won four of six, including a 2-1 victory over Manchester City, but have also lost as odds-on favorites against West Ham and Sheffield United. Both of those losses saw Chelsea concede three times and lose the expected goals battle.
At the moment you don’t know what you’re going to get from Chelsea. On their day, they are one of the most dangerous teams in Europe. On the other days, they can get nicked by anyone.
On paper this is a mismatch. It’s also a motivational disaster for Norwich. While the Canaries have nothing to gain from this match, Chelsea are in the middle of a real scrap with Manchester United, Leicester City and Wolves for the final two Champions League spots and are coming off an ugly loss. A loss to Norwich on Tuesday could derail Chelsea’s entire season.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
|Stats Since Restart||Norwich City||Chelsea|
|Goals for per game||0.17||2|
|Expected goals for per game||0.58||2.2|
|Goals against per game||2.5||1.67|
|Expected goals against per game||1.62||1.38|
|Total goals per game||2.67||3.67|
|Total expected goals per game||2.2||3.58|
Even though they are under-performing their expected goals since the hiatus, Norwich’s statistical profile does not instill much confidence. Chelsea’s offense has been flying since the hiatus and they shouldn’t have much of a problem creating scoring chances against Norwich’s leaky defense.
If you look hard enough you can find a couple of reasons to throw some lunch money on Norwich. The Canaries have defied some big odds with wins over Manchester City, Everton and Leicester City this season.
Additionally, Chelsea have shown they are more than capable of serving up a dud. Their deserved losses to West Ham and Sheffield United should worry anybody thinking about betting Chelsea in any fashion.
Because of all the variables at play, this is a particularly awkward match to handicap. The outrageous odds, the high total, the motivational factors and the boom-or-bust favorite all complicate things for a bettor.
If you are looking for action on a match like this, I’d go hunting for a bigger price. The volatility could lead to chaos and, to me at least, the least-likely outcome in this match is a ho-hum 1-0 win for the favorite.
My hope is that Norwich City, with no pressure on them at all, go for broke and try to give Chelsea a game. That should lead to chaos and hopefully some crooked numbers.