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Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Pick, Preview: Take Brentford To Get Result vs. Aston Villa

Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Pick, Preview: Take Brentford To Get Result vs. Aston Villa article feature image
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Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Bryan Mbeumo.

  • Brentford hosts improving Aston Villa in Sunday’s Premier League action.
  • The Bees (+215 on the moneyline) have struggled of late, losing three consecutive matches ahead of this mid-table clash.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down the contest below and details why he’s backing underdog Brentford to get a result.

Brentford vs. Aston Villa Odds

Brentford Odds +215
Aston Villa Odds +140
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+115 / -135)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
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Odds updated via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Brentford and Aston Villa meet for a mid-table Premier League clash Sunday at Brentford Community Stadium.

The Bees have been in bad form as of late, losing their last three matches and dropping to 14th in the league table. In contrast, Brentford is one of the league’s more underrated teams and suffered a narrow 1-0 defeat to Manchester City on Wednesday.

That said, this  is a fantastic opportunity for manager Thomas Frank’s Bees to pick up three points on home soil and move toward the top half of the table.

On the other side, manager Steven Gerrard has completely turned Aston Villa’s season around, winning four of his first seven games in charge. The Villans enter this match sitting 12th, having played a gauntlet of a schedule over the past two months, which has included Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea.

Much like Brentford, this will be a good opportunity for Villa to get back in the top half of the table with a victory.

Underlying Statistics Kind to Brentford

Brentford delivered a really encouraging performance against Manchester City on Wednesday, with the league leader only creating 1.00 expected goals, which was its second-lowest output of the season.

Offensively, the Bees haven’t looked great their past two matches, though, creating only 1.1 total xG against Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City. However, those are two of the five best defenses in the entire league.

Brentford’s pressing should be very successful against Aston Villa, who is one of the worst teams against it in the league, ranking 19th in Offensive Passes Per Defensive Action (PPDA), while Brentford is seventh in PPDA overall, per Understat.

Finally, Brentford is one of the most efficient teams on set pieces, averaging 0.12 xG per set piece, while Aston Villa is one of the worst EPL teams at defending them. The Villans have conceded seven goals already this season via set pieces and their best defender — Tyrone Mings — is out due to accumulation of yellow cards.

Is Aston Villa for Real Under Gerrard?

Aston Villa has improved under Gerrard, but its attack hasn’t improved much at all, creating 6.6 xG in his seven matches in charge.

Brentford is a really good defensive outfit, allowing only 1.14 non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) per match and 11.9 shots per 90 minutes, both of which rank in the top six in the EPL, per fbref.com. That indicates Aston Villa, which ranks in the bottom five in NPxG, shots per 90 minutes and big scoring chances, is going to struggle to create chances.

Brentford was the superior team in the first matchup between these teams back in late August, although Dean Smith was in charge of Villa at that point in the season.

The Bees won on xG battle by a 1.1-0.6 margin and had more touches in the penalty area, shot-creating actions, interceptions and tackles than Villa.


Betting Analysis & Pick

I have the host projected as a +120 favorite, so I’m backing Brentford on the Draw No Bet line at +120 odds.

Pick: Brentford — Draw No Bet (+120)

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