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Premier League Prop Picks & Best Bets: Our Top Plays, Including Pick From Chelsea vs. Liverpool (Jan. 2)

Premier League Prop Picks & Best Bets: Our Top Plays, Including Pick From Chelsea vs. Liverpool (Jan. 2) article feature image
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Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea star Romelu Lukaku, left, celebrates a goal with teammate Kai Havertz.

Another year has come to a close in the Premier League, but another gets underway this weekend with solid matches taking place across the landscape.

We’ve only had two games postponed (fingers crossed there aren’t anymore in the 11th hour), which is good news. And things get started with a banger early Saturday when Arsenal hosts Manchester City to open the slate.

Adding to our already extensive coverage of the event, we’re continuing to deliver more betting angles at The Action Network via our new element that will feature our top prop plays. From player angles to team and game picks, you will find a little bit of everything to entertain your betting interests.

That said, handicapper Avery Zimmerman has found plenty of betting value on three highlighted wagers, which come from intriguing games featuring Crystal Palace vs. West Ham UnitedBrentford vs. Aston Villa and Chelsea vs. Liverpool.

Let’s take a look below where he’s landed on the busy weekend card.

Premier League Prop Bets

Crystal Palace vs. West Ham

The Pick Crystal Palace — Over 1.5 (+155)
Day | Time Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Best odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

This is a game I believe could produce fireworks. Both teams are capable of scoring goals and each has an unreliable back line, but the value on Crystal Palace is excellent.

The Eagles have combined for eight goals and 5.98 expected goals over their past three games, while the Hammers have conceded three goals and 4.37 xGA in their prior three road matches. Every advanced metric points to the odds on Palace scoring more or less than 1.5 goals at about 50 percent.

At this price, the implied probability of 39.2 percent is far less than the probability  it cashes. Fifty percent isn’t a guarantee by any means, but the positive expected value on the wager is one that will return well over the long term.

Brentford vs. Aston Villa

The Pick Aston Villa — Over 1.5 (+135)
Day | Time Sunday | 9 a.m. ET 
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Best odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Another quality opportunity to take advantage of a team total comes with Aston Villa.

The Lions come into this match having played just once since Dec. 15, but this is a great chance for manager Steven Gerrard’s team to get going again. In its seven games under Gerrard’s leadership, Aston Villa’s only sub-two goal outings have come against Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool.

Brentford put forth what was probably its best defensive performance of the season against City on Wednesday, and a repeat of that quality would certainly limit Villa below two goals. However, the odds of Brentford competing that well in the defensive third is limited.

I expect the Villa to outperform its 1.16 xG/away total and I really like this price.

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Chelsea vs. Liverpool

The Pick Over 3.5 Cards (-135)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch USA Network | fuboTV
Best odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Anthony Taylor takes charge of this massive fixture on Sunday, and he’s shown throughout the season he’s not afraid to issue a high number of bookings.

Taylor has issued 62 cards on the campaign, more than any other referee in the English top flight. His average of 4.42 cards/game should translate well into a match that features high stakes and should be played with equal intensity. Given the distance City is creating between itself and Chelsea and Liverpool, both teams will be even more desperate for three points.

Chelsea only averages about 1.5 cards per game and Liverpool is just under that total. However, the value still lies on the over due to Taylor officiating the match. This is a wager where the odds are at -160 or even shorter for some oddsmakers, so be sure to get the best price available.

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