Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Leeds United vs. Watford Betting Preview (Oct. 2)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Leeds United vs. Watford Betting Preview (Oct. 2) article feature image
Credit:

Richard Heathcote/Getty Images. Pictured: Ismaila Sarr

Leeds vs. Watford Odds

Leeds Odds -135
Watford Odds +360
Draw +295
Over/Under 2.5 (-150 / +120)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Two teams in the bottom half of the table will do battle Saturday as newly promoted Watford travels to Elland Road to take on winless Leeds United.

Manager Marcelo Bielsa’s team will surely be looking to pick up its first win of the campaign at home against an opponent that was a league below them last season, but the Hornets are coming in with some confidence after picking up four points in the last two matches.

The bookmakers are favoring the home side in this one, but I’m not so sure that I’m ready to back Leeds yet until I fully see a team that resembles one closer to the 2020-21 version.

Leeds Continues to Struggle This Season

Everything was positive following the return to the top flight last year. Leeds finished in the top half of the table, had the next great English striker in Patrick Bamford and looked more than capable of sticking in the division for a long time.

You then turn the page to this season, and nothing has gone right after six games. Bielsa’s squad enters the weekend in the relegation zone and only has points through draws with Burnley, Newcastle United and Everton.

Most of the issues are defensively for the Peacocks as they rank in the bottom three in the league in goals against (14) and expected goals against (12.3) according to fbref.com.

Leeds has had a tougher schedule than most to start the campaign, and with the upcoming league fixtures including Watford, Southampton, Wolves and Norwich City, this game would go a long way toward starting some much-needed momentum for that important run of games.

Watford’s Modest Success Warranted

The momentum that the home side is looking for is something that Watford has been building over the last two weeks, following a win at Norwich and a draw with Newcastle.

Coming into the weekend in 12th, the Hornets’ position in the table just about lines up with what their advanced metrics read, ranking in the bottom half in expected goals difference (-3), xG against (9.0) and xG (6.0) in the table.

Xisco’s side has struggled to create many chances in games this season, but that hasn’t stopped star winger Ismaila Sarr from scoring four goals through six games.

Watford does have the attacking talent to pose threats in this match, with new summer signing Emmanuel Bonaventure (Club Brugge), veteran striker Joshua King and former Tottenham Hotspur midfielder Moussa Sissoko, and this could be the perfect game for all of the talent to come together and play well.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

The oddsmakers have made Leeds the home favorite in this match, coming into the game at -135 on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 shaded heavy to the over at -150 odds.

I teased it at the top, but I think a winless team that concedes a lot of chances and goals shouldn’t be favored by this much in the Premier League.

My best bet for this game is to take Watford on the Asian Handicap of +0.75 at -105, which means the Peacocks need to win by two goals to lose the full bet.

Leeds has given up a goal in every match so far, including against teams with similar quality to the Hornets, and they have only scored multiple goals in one of six games this season.

I think these teams are much closer in quality than the odds are showing, which is why I’m backing Watford to continue its momentum and get a result at Elland Road.

Pick: Watford +0.75 (-110)

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