Sunday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Spurs vs. Leeds United Betting Preview

Sunday Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Spurs vs. Leeds United Betting Preview article feature image
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Peter Powell/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham Hotspur star Son Heung-min.

  • Tottenham Hotspur hosts Leeds United in Sunday’s Premier League showdown.
  • Spurs are looking for their first League win under new head coach Antonio Conte.
  • Avery Zimmerman breaks down the matchup below and explains why he’s backing Tottenham to get the victory.

Spurs vs. Leeds Odds

Spurs Odds -140
Leeds Odds +360
Draw +310
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
How To Watch NBCSN | fuboTV
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

In the second Premier League game for Tottenham under manager Antonio Conte’s leadership and the first home game of the tenure, the club will face Leeds United in Sunday’s Premier League action.

Neither team has been able to find the success they were hoping for at this point in the season, as Leeds sits in the bottom half of the table and Tottenham resides in ninth place. However, we’re still very early in the season.

As EPL teams enter a brutal stretch that includes a copious amount of games through the new year (13 for Tottenham, including European action, and 10 for Leeds), it will be vital for each club to kickstart the period with a positive result.

Here’s what to look out for when Leeds travels to Tottenham for this battle.

Spurs Looking to Kick Off Conte’s Campaign

The first two games of Conte’s new stay in London haven’t been short of intensity. In Spurs’ Europa League game versus Vitesse and EPL match with Everton, they combined for five cards, including a red card against the Dutch side.

Next for Tottenham is getting three points in a league contest, and Conte will really want to get that done in this game at home. Though Spurs is currently in ninth, the gap between Tottenham and 14th-placed Brentford is currently only four points. The gap between Spurs and fourth-placed Liverpool is sitting at six points.

A big issue for Tottenham has been its home production. Despite the three wins that Spurs have, they’ve come away with just four goals earned and seven conceded. Tottenham is generating just 1.08 xG/game at home, good for 17th in the league.

Defensively it’s not much better, as Spurs has conceded the sixth-most xGA per game (1.5) of all EPL sides. No one has out-performed its expected performance at home better than Tottenham, and while that’s commendable, it’s going to have to change to see sustained success.

There are no major absences for Conte to deal with, but he’ll be without Cristian Romero and Oliver Skipp. Giovani Lo Celso might also be out after picking up an injury.

Leeds Maintaining Consistently Average Form

The Peacocks have been as average as they come over their past five EPL games. Leeds has won two, drawn two and lost one, but remains in a precarious position in the table.

Leeds is just three points clear of the relegation zone and its away form matches up well with its home form. The Peacocks have amassed five points on the road and six points at home, and the only real distinction in form comes with regards to Leeds’ xG at home versus on the road.

While the home and away xGA numbers are nearly identical (1.57/1.58), Leeds is amassing 1.78 xG/game at home versus 1.3 away. The Peacocks were able to get away with it in their last road contest against Norwich City, winning 2-1 the match despite a 0.99-0.90 xG differential.

Leeds will have to get another result without the help of Patrick Bamford, Robin Koch and Luke Ayling, but Marcelo Bielsa has managed his team’s injury problems thus far.


Betting Analysis & Pick

This is a steep price to pay on Tottenham, but I believe that it’s worth it.

Spurs come into this game without a League win under Conte, and the intensity will be there once again to achieve that feat. The matchup projects to be a good one for Tottenham, who is facing a Leeds side that doesn’t generate the same amount of scoring opportunities on the road it does at home.

While Tottenham also hasn’t produced as well as it should be on home soil, this is a crucial opportunity to get on track and jumpstart the intense period of matches that are about to ensue.

Pick: Spurs ML (-140)

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