West Ham vs. Tottenham Odds & Picks: Can Hotspurs Pull Sunday Premier League Upset? (Oct. 24)

West Ham vs. Spurs Odds

In a great London derby on Sunday, West Ham United welcomes Tottenham Hotspur in what’s set up to be an awesome game between teams pushing for European places.

Spurs come into the game one point up on the hosts in fifth place on five wins, with the Hammers close behind in seventh with four victories. In the two fixtures last season, West Ham picked up four points out of a possible six, but Tottenham has picked up three wins in its last four trips to the London Stadium.

With star attacking players competing in a local derby, this should to be a fantastic match on the Premier League schedule.

West Ham Putting Up Big Numbers This Season

West Ham is off to a solid start in the 2021-22 campaign, but the advanced metrics show that it could have been even better.

David Moyes’ squad is only behind Liverpool and Man City in expected goals (13.1) and expected goals difference (+4.3), according to fbref.com. Jamaican striker Michail Antonio has been firing on all cylinders as well, leading the team in goals (six) and assists (six) across all competitions.

The return to European competition also hasn’t been an issue for West Ham, who are 3-0 in the group stages of the Europa League with a goal difference of +7. From the defensive side of things, the Hammers have been very solid, with only four teams posting a better xGA number compared to their 8.8 overall.

Spurs Have Put Endured Mixed Bag of Results

Tottenham have been very streaky in the Premier League this season, starting off the campaign with three victories followed by a trio of ugly losses.

Manager Nuno Espirito Santo’s team has bounced back from the rough spell with consecutive wins against Aston Villa and Newcastle United, but the club did lose in the Europa Conference League in midweek to Vitesse.

With star striker Harry Kane not hitting his stride yet, Spurs have had to rely on Korean forward Son Heung-min to lead the squad with four goals in the EPL through eight games. From an xG standpoint, Spurs rank in the bottom half of the table in xG (8.9) and expected goals difference (-1.5) in the categories.

Tottenham will need to improve in London derbies, with Santo’s side losing all three so far this year and being outscored by a combined seven goals.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

DraftKings is expecting an even contest at London Stadium, with West Ham the favorite at +135 on the moneyline to go with a total of 2.5 shaded to the under at -125 odds.

I feel that the price for the home team is too big for this match, so my best bet is to take the Hammers on the Asian Handicap of -0.25 at +105 odds.

If you look over the last five league games for both teams, West Ham comes into the match with a +1 xG difference, while Tottenham is worse off at -1.4 in the statistics.

You can also look at the goal difference numbers for the season, where Spurs are at -3 and the Hammers +5 to show that some regression to the means will be coming soon. Excluding the opening day victory over Manchester City, Tottenham has picked up most of their points against lower competition in Newcastle, Aston Villa and Watford.

I don’t hate the idea of playing West Ham on the juicy moneyline price, but I like the security of still getting a push on the Asian line at plus money.

Back the Hammers to keep their strong start to the season going in this game.

Pick: West Ham -0.25 (+105)