Southamptons vs. Chelsea Odds, Picks, Prediction, Best Bets: Back This Prop Bet With Plenty of Value (April 9)
Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea standout Mason Mount.
- Southampton hosts Chelsea in Saturday's Premier League match.
- The Blues, who are heavy -120 ML road favorites, have suffered consecutive defeats against Brentford and Real Madrid ahead of this contest.
- Nick Hennion takes a look at this meeting below and delivers his top selection.
Southampton vs. Chelsea Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Off a 3-1 home blowout loss against Real Madrid, Chelsea travels to Southampton seeking to end its two-match losing streak across all competitions in Saturday’s Premier League action.
As for Southampton, the club is hoping to half a two-match home losing skid in the English top flight and a four-game winless run overall. A win for the Saints would vault them into the top half of the league table, while three points for the visitors would extend their cushion over fourth place to eight points.
In the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge, Chelsea produced a dominant performance. It earned a 3-1 victory and won the expected-goals battle by a 3.6-1.3 margin. However, prior to that result, Southampton secured points in three consecutive head-to-head meetings.
Southampton Dealing With Mixed Results
It has been a mixed run of results for Southampton, which hasn’t earned three points from a match since a Feb. 25 victory against Norwich City.
However, before this current four-game winless run, manager Ralph Hassenhutl’s squad put together a five-match unbeaten run, which included a win against Tottenham, as well as draws against Manchester United and Manchester City.
In fact, Southampton has played well at home against top-half opposition. Although it owns no wins in six such matches, Southampton has won a point in six of those seven outings. Plus, its only such loss, which came against Wolves way back in the season , saw Southampton win on expected goals.
And although its struggled of late at Saint Mary’s Stadium, Southampton still owns the ninth-best home xGDiff this season. Furthermore, although the competition hasn’t been the most difficult, the Saints have won four of their last six home games on xG and notched at least one xG in all six games, according to fbref.com.
If there’s one area of concern, it’s that Southampton has come up slightly lucky defensively at home. Through 15 fixtures, it has conceded 14 goals on 15.5 xG and conceded at least one xGA in five of six contests against top-half sides.
Chelsea Hoping to Halt Rare Slide
After an outstanding run of results, the Chelsea defense has seemingly fallen off the rails over the last week.
Its most recent EPL fixture saw manager Thomas Tuchel’s side suffer a 4-1 home loss against Brentford before the aforementioned 3-1 drubbing from Real Madrid earlier this week at Stamford Bridge.
That said, the defensive metrics for the Blues in the matches prior were solid. Just in the previous seven league fixtures, they held six opponents at less than one xG and all seven under 1.1 xG, per fbref.com.
That said, the Chelsea attack has played well of late. In its last four EPL fixtures, it has created at least 1.8 xG in three games and notched at least one xG in five consecutive domestic fixtures.
However, the fact remains Chelsea has experienced a great deal of fortune away from home. Through 15 road EPL matches, it owns a +20 goal differential on just a +9.5 xGDiff, the largest discrepancy amongst the ten-best road xGDiff sides this season.
BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
I can’t help but think Chelsea will have one eye on its trip to Madrid on Tuesday and might not be extremely motivated here.
That said, I need a better price on Southampton getting +0.5 goals on the spread line to consider getting involved. The Saints are currently sitting at -110, but given it hasn’t defeated a top-half side at home this season, I would need +100 or +105 odds to consider the wager.
Where I do see value though comes via the Both Teams To Score betting market. The “Yes” is currently at -115 and I personally think that’s an extremely palatable price. Combine Chelsea’s recent defensive struggles with the fact only one side has deservedly held Southampton goalless at home and I rate the hosts highly to get on the scoreboard.
Additionally, Chelsea is still due for a healthy amount of negative road defensive regression — the club has conceded nine goals on nearly 14 xGA — so, the host’s press should be able to catch out a tired Blues defense.
On the flip side, Chelsea’s recently improved attack should expose a Southampton defense that hasn’t kept a clean sheet against any top-half club since the calendar turned to 2022.
For those reasons, I rate this market closer to -130 and am happy to take a shot at -115 odds.
Pick: Both Teams To Score — Yes (-115)