Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction & Preview: Back Manchester City to Hammer Brentford in EPL Clash
Lynne Cameron – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City standout João Cancelo.
- Manchester City looks to continue its Premier League dominance Wednesday when it faces Brentford.
- The Cityzen are whopping -800 favorites against the Bees, who hope to spring the massive upset at Etihad Stadium.
- Avery Zimmerman breaks down the contest below and details why he's backing Manchester City to cover a huge spread.
Man City vs. Brentford Odds
|Man City Odds||-800|
|Over/Under||3.5 (-105 / -120)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
The international break ended for Manchester City with a 4-1 win over Fulham, while Brentford suffered a 4-1 loss to Everton.
However, Premier League play resumes this week and both squads are looking to secure points for much different goals.
City leads the English top flight with nine points separating it from second-placed Liverpool. On the other side, Brentford is currently in 14th place and eight points clear of the relegation zone. The Bees have played 23 games, which is two or more than the current bottom three clubs, though.
So, will manager Pep Guardiola’s team continue to cruise home to a EPL title?
Man City Looking to Maintain Dominant Form
Though City actually dropped points in its last league contest — drawing 1-1 with Southampton — they have secured wins in 12 of it last 13 league games.
During that span, the Cityzens held the expected-goals edge in every fixture, so it’s no surprise to see the squad have this type of run. As we’ve come to learn, an in-form Guardiola side is one of the most terrifying that EPL can offer and it seems like no one can stop the club when it’s playing like this.
Man City leads the English top flight in xG/game, xGA/game and is only fifth in chance conversion rate. The odds this team will go into any substantial kind of rut is highly unlikely, and it will have its eyes set on another attempt at a EPL-Champions League double.
The Cityzens also had just one player leave for the Africa Cup of Nations tournament, with that being Riyad Mahrez. Rivals Liverpool and Chelsea lost key cogs in Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mané, Naby Keita and Edouard Mendy, while City got even healthier and more fit.
Brentford Needs Points to Avoid Relegation Battle
Speaking of AFCON absences, Brentford was one team that was hit hard. Julian Jeanvier, Frank Onyeka and Tarique Fosu-Henry left for the competition, and the Bees have now lost five games on the bounce.
Brentford is now in a precarious position, as the club sits in 14th place but has played more games than anyone below it and it has played two more than everyone else except Norwich City.
Thus, picking up results wherever possible is going to be vital for Brentford if it wants to avoid a serious relegation battle. The good news is that its results have been worse than its performances, particularly a 3-1 loss to Manchester United where Brentford actually matched United’s xG total.
The Bees are in the bottom half of the league in terms of conversion rate, but generally this is a good indicator that better results will come. However, flipping the switch against City is quite the task.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Things haven’t been pretty for Brentford recently, but getting 2.5 goals at near even money is a tempting offer. Nonetheless, there are a couple reasons why I have to take City in this matchup.
The Cityzens have posted an average 1.88 xG differential throughout the season at Etihad Stadium, while the Bees have been at -0.64 xG/game away from home. They’ve also lost by two goals or more in each of their last three road league games.
Add in the fact Brentford could be dealing with a few tired legs heading into this contest, plus City should be fresh as could be, and it’s hard to rationalize anything other than the league leader dominating yet again.
At +100 odds, City -2.5 is playable in this contest.
Pick: Manchester City -2.5 (+100)