Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions, Best Bets: Arsenal vs. Manchester United EPL Betting Preview (April 23)

Arsenal vs. Man United Odds

Kicking off the Premier League slate this weekend, Arsenal hosts Manchester United at Emirates Stadium on Saturday in a crucial match in the race for the top four and Champions League qualification next season.

The Gunners, fresh off a 4-2 midweek win at Chelsea, enter the game in fifth place and tied on points with crosstown rival Tottenham.

Meanwhile, the Red Devils trail the North London clubs by three points, which means a victory would go a long way in keeping them in the hunt.

United won the reverse fixture back in December, but I think this could be the perfect revenge spot for the home team this time around.

Arsenal Uncorks Huge Win vs. Chelsea

Just when fans started to think Arsenal was crumbling under the pressure, manager Mikel Arteta guided his young side to a thrilling win Wednesday at Stamford Bridge.

The victory ended a three-match losing streak. However, the advanced metrics show the Gunners haven’t been as bad as their results suggest.

Over its last seven EPL games, the North London club has posted a +6.3 xGDiff and averaged 1.87 xG per 90 minutes during that span, according to fbref.com.

The Gunners will be missing two key starters in midfielder Thomas Partey and defender Kieran Tierney again due to injury, but it hasn’t stopped them from putting together solid performances despite their absence.

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Man United Hoping to Finish Strong

As United awaits the arrival of new manager Erik ten Hag in the summer and rumors swirl at players' futures, the team desperately needs to turn around recent results to secure Champions League qualification.

It doesn’t help the Red Devils have been missing key pieces in leading scorer Cristiano Ronaldo, Luke Shaw, Raphaël Varane, Fred and Scott McTominay.

If this group of players is out again, it’s going to be very difficult to overcome against a top-six side away from Old Trafford, especially with the form the team is currently on.

Over the last six league games, United held a -2.8 xGDiff and allowed opponents to average 1.47 expected goals per match during this run.

BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections

Betting Analysis & Pick

Oddsmakers at BetMGM are expecting an Arsenal win, listing the host as the moneyline favorite at even money. The total for the match is set at 2.5 goals.

I do want to back the Gunners in this game, but I’m looking to get a better price. So, my best bet is to play the Single Game Parlay pairing Arsenal to win with the total flying over 1.5 goals at +140 odds.

Beyond the form of both sides, another key selling point for this bet has been how the clubs have done against teams in the top half of the table.

United owns a -9.1 xGDiff and has averaged just 0.9 xG per game against top-10 clubs away from home. Meanwhile, the Gunners have a +2.2 xGDiff at home against similar opposition, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have accumulated more points on home soil this season.

As for the total, eight out of the North London club’s last 10 league fixtures have finished with multiple goals, which is the exact same for United. The Red Devils' road games have also averaged 3.19 goals per match, and they have cleared this same total 81 percent of the time.

Make sure to check any lineup news ahead of this important fixture prior to kickoff. Regardless of who plays, I think there's great value in backing the Arsenal on the better form to secure three vital points.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Arsenal ML & Total Over 1.5 Goals (+140)

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