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Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday Premier League (Nov. 29)

Chelsea vs. Tottenham Hotspur Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Sunday Premier League (Nov. 29) article feature image

Darren Walsh/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea’s Ben Chilwell, left, celebrates with teammate Thiago Silva.

  • Two of the Premier League's finest clubs battle Sunday when Chelsea hosts Tottenham Hotspur.
  • The Blues are the slight favorites in this marquee battle taking place at Stamford Bridge.
  • Anthony Dabbundo breaks things down and delivers his top pick below.

Chelsea vs. Spurs Odds

Chelsea Odds +107 [BET NOW]
Spurs Odds +255 [BET NOW]
Draw +255 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2.5 (-132/+107) [BET NOW]
Time 11:30 a.m. ET

Odds as of Sunday at 9:45 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Two of the Premier League’s three best teams to start the 2020-21 season will face off in West London on Sunday as Tottenham Hotspur visit rival Chelsea.

Spurs are fresh off a 2-0 win against Manchester City to move to the top of the PL table for the first time since 2014. Meanwhile, Chelsea has won six straight in all competitions and has improved defensively heading into this crucial clash.

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The Blues are getting healthy with manager Frank Lampard’s announcement that Christian Pulisic is fit to play against Spurs on Sunday. Their xG numbers are even better than last year’s so far this season, even if they’ve been a bit fortunate because of a high number of penalties. But the largest improvement for Chelsea has been on defense. 

By improving both fullback positions and adding Thiago Silva, Chelsea have improved their xGA numbers in 2020. More importantly, since Edouard Mendy has come in goal, Chelsea are no longer massively underperforming their xGA like they did last year and earlier this season.

They’ve allowed less than one xGA in each of their last four Premier League matches and allowed just one goal in that same timeframe. This is the best defense that the Blues have played all season and I think they are much better equipped to handle the counter attack now that N’Golo Kanté looks much more fresh since the COVID-19 lockdowns. 

Kanté’s ability to drop deep and pick up Harry Kane in the No. 10 role helps a Chelsea team in a way that City was unable to cope with. Kane’s run to come short is what sprung Spurs’ first goal of the game. 

Going forward, I still have concerns about Tottenham’s center backs, and Spurs youngster Joe Rodon will have a tough time handling the attacking firepower presented by Chelsea’s Timo Werner and Tammy Abraham.

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I wrote last week how I believe Spurs could legitimately be title contenders based on the numbers in their first eight games, but that the upcoming stretch of games would be season-defining.

Their performance against Manchester City wasn’t dominant, but it’s one example of expected goals not telling the story of how a game necessarily went.

Spurs took their first chance of the game five minutes in, sat deep and blocked the majority of City’s chances from within the penalty area. José Mourinho’s men set out and did exactly what he would have wanted. They lost the xG battle 0.7-1.3, but easily won the game. 

What’s most encouraging for Spurs here is that they did rotate almost their entire squad in the Thursday match with Ludogorets in the Europa League, and they still steamrolled and didn’t allow a shot in a 4-0 win.

They rank second in non-penalty expected goal difference for the PL season, and have been very efficient within the penalty area. They’ve created lots of chances despite ranking 15th in the league in passes completed within the opponent’s penalty area.

We all know exactly how Mourinho will set up his team to play on Sunday, and it’s a strategy that proved quite effective against Chelsea in the 2019-20 season. Sit deep in a middle block, let Chelsea have the ball and counter them.

However, I see some problems with Mourinho’s setup against this Chelsea team.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite Spurs being the most upgraded team since the start of the season in my PL projections, I show value on Chelsea.

The Blues are +106 here, and I make them -115 to beat Spurs at home. I’ll ride with Chelsea to take all three points in this match and announce themselves as the top title challenger to Liverpool.

Pick: Chelsea +100 or better

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