Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Watford vs. Southampton Betting Preview (Oct. 30)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Watford vs. Southampton Betting Preview (Oct. 30) article feature image
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Tess Derry/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Watford standout Ismaila Sarr.

Watford vs. Southampton Odds

Watford Odds +210
Southampton Odds +135
Draw +220
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Another important battle at the bottom of the Premier League table will be held at Vicarage Road on Saturday when Watford hosts Southampton in a game that will be missing some key figures on both sides.

The teams enter the weekend very close in the standings, with a pair of points the difference between the Hornets (14th place) and 16th-place Saints.

Watford, which recently hired Claudio Ranieri as manager, are fresh off an impressive 5-2 comeback victory at Everton last week, while Southampton is unbeaten in their last two fixtures with a win over Leeds United and draw against Burnley.

Both squads will be confident of getting a result to help their respective chances of surviving the drop to the Championship.

Can Ranieri Turn Things Around at Watford?

So, which Ranieri reign will Watford get? One like the tenure he had leading Leicester City to one of the biggest underdog stories of all time by winning the Premier League in the2015-16 campaign or another that involved not surviving a full season with a Fulham side that ended up getting relegated?

His first two games in charge have seen a lot of goals, with 12 combined in the loss at Liverpool and the club’s first-ever victory at Everton.

On the whole of the season, the Hornets rank toward the bottom of the Premier League table in expected goals (9.9), shots per match (10.89) and xG allowed (16.7), according to fbref.com.

Summer signing Emmanuel Dennis (Club Brugge) has adapted well to his new side with three goals and three assists in the English top flight, but he’s suspended for this match due to yellow-card accumulation.

Watford should still have enough attacking threat from the duo of Ismaila Sarr and Joshua King, who have combined for seven goals and two assists.

Southampton Finding Form Entering Match

Southampton is hoping the two goals scored last weekend are the start to positive regression in front of goal.

Through the first nine games, the Saints’ eight goals are in the bottom four of the league, even though they rank in the top half of the EPL in xG (12.7) and shots per match (12.67) this season.

Manager Ralph Hasenhüttl’s side has also been solid defensively, entering this fixture sixth in shots allowed per game and mid-table in xG allowed at 12.6 in the category.

Like its counterpart, Southampton will also be missing a key contributor, with club captain and joint top scorer James Ward-Prowse sitting out the final game of his red-card suspension.

Alex McCarthy has been one of the better goalkeepers in the league this season, as he’s one of just seven players at the position to have a positive post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed mark of +0.4 so far.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

DraftKings has Southampton listed as the favorite at +130 on the moneyline, and the total for the match is set at 2.5 goals. I’m not ready to back the Saints on the road at this number, though.

That said, my best bet for this showdown is Watford on the Asian Handicap of +0.25 at -110 odds.

I have these teams rated much closer than the odds suggest, and the visitors have a much more significant loss with Ward-Prowse out due to suspension.

Although Ranieri has had some different outcomes to coaching stints in England, he is typically consistent in improving his sides on the defensive front. Watford already has the talent to fit his counter-attacking system.

The draw at +220 isn’t a bad bet either, considering the Saints have the second most in the league with five, but I’m backing the hosts to get a positive result.

Pick: Watford +0.25 (-115)

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