Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo Prediction | Betting Picks Today
Europa Press Sports/Getty. Pictured: Fran Beltran.
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo Odds
| Rayo Vallecano Odds | +145 |
| Celta Vigo Odds | +210 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +105 / -134 |
Closing out the weekend in La Liga, Rayo Vallecano welcome Celta Vigo to the Estadio de Vallecas for Monday Night Futbol.
The home side has not picked up a win in its last five league matches to fall to 11th in the league table.
Meanwhile, the visitors have just one victory this season to enter this game in the relegation zone in 18th.
This has been another entertaining soccer weekend in Spain, and I feel Monday's encore should also include plenty of goals.
Read on for my Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo prediction in my betting picks today.
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Rayo Vallecano
After the manager left to coach in the Premier League, all eyes were on his replacement Francisco to keep the club moving in the right direction.
The team got off to a solid start to the campaign before this current rough patch of form, which may be down to a difficult schedule. Rayo have faced Athletic Club, Barcelona, Girona, Real Madrid and Real Sociedad over the last five games.
One surprising feature of this poor run has been the lack of wins at home, where the club thrived last season. On the campaign, Francisco’s side only has one victory in seven at Vallecas.
Even with the recent struggles, Rayo are still sitting comfortably above the relegation zone and looking great to stay in the Spanish top flight.
Celta Vigo
Manager Rafael Benítez’s team has been tough to figure out. On the surface, Celta Vigo only have one victory and are in 18th in La Liga.
However, Celta’s metrics paint a different picture. If you sorted the league table by xGDiff, Benítez’s team would be 10th in the league, according to fbref.com.
Benítez also has to be pleased with the production he is getting from veteran star Iago Aspas. The 36-year old leads the team in assists with four.
If the team can continue to put together strong performances, the results will start to turn. Will Benítez be given enough time to see the change?
Rayo Vallecano vs Celta Vigo
Prediction
When I look at this game, multiple data points lead me to believe there should be goals in this match.
So, my best bet is for the total to fly over 2.5 goals at +105 odds at bet365, which I would play to -110. I also don’t hate a look at both teams to score either.
Starting first with the host, Rayo Vallecano has played in some high-event fixtures at home. In the seven fixtures at Vallecas, the average expected goals in those matches is 3.543 xG per 90 minutes.
Rayo’s defense has been the primary reason for this. Only Granada have allowed more xG at home this season, and the two clubs are tied for giving up the most big scoring chances.
Meanwhile, Celta Vigo’s road games have also featured goals, with the fixtures averaging over 3 xG per match.
While the defense hasn’t been great under Benítez, the main issue has been poor goalkeeping. Regardless of who is between the pipes, the team ranks in the bottom five in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed.
This is why Celta Vigo have only picked up one clean sheet in the league this season, while also scoring in more games than not.
This was a pick I gave in a recent road match for Vigo, and I believe it has great value to cash once again.
Pick: Over 2.5 (+105, bet to -110)
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