RB Leipzig vs. Celtic Champions League Betting Preview: Will the Red Bulls Bounce Back?

Leipzig vs. Celtic Odds

It's desperation time for both RB Leipzig and Celtic as they sit at the bottom of Group F heading into their third match.

RB Leipzig have recently gone through a manager change after a poor start to their Bundesliga season, sacking Dominico Tadesco in favor for former Gladbach and Dortmund manager Marco Rose. The Red Bulls sit in 11th place in the Bundesliga and have lost their first two matches in the Champions League, so the time is now for them to kick it into high gear.

Celtic were very unfortunate to not come away with a win in Poland over Shakhtar, which makes this match and the reverse leg in Glasgow extremely important for their chances of advancing.

Leipzig

Marco Rose is now at the helm, and I don’t think this team is at the level that we’ve seen in years past. Over the last three years, their xThreat differential has been declining, going from 0.71 in 2020-21 to 0.58 last season, and then to 0.25 this season, per markstats.club. I know that is a small sample size, but when you look at their Bundesliga schedule, they've played a lot of mid table clubs as they blew out Dortmund then were dismantled by Gladbach.

Then this past weekend they put up 4.1 xG against Bochum, the worst team in the Bundesliga. Before the Bochum match, Leipzig was just at a +1.1 xGD through seven matches. 

Plus, RB Leipzig are going to be without Lukas Klostermann, Konrad Laimer and Dani Olmo. 

RB Leipzig since last season has really struggled defending in transition, especially under Jesse Marsch. This season they’ve already allowed three goals off of counter attacks, which is the most in the Bundesliga, and Celtic is certainly a team that can take advantage on the counter.

Celtic

In the Scottish Premier League last season, Celtic finished with 2.6 xG per 90 minutes but only allowed 0.95 xG per 90 minutes. This season they've been just as good, averaging 2.92 xG per 90 minutes while only allowing 0.92 xG per 90 minutes.

I thought Celtic looked strong for the first 55 minutes of the match against Real Madrid until the wheels fell off. They only got outshot 10 to 13, and they out touched Madrid in the penalty area 29 to 23. They also tied Real Madrid on box entries 14 to 14, but Madrid created a few big chances, and capitalizing on those chances was the difference. 

Then against Shakhtar, Celtic completely dominated the match. They won on xG 1.6 to 0.2, outshot the Ukrainian champions 16 to 5, and out-touched them in the penalty area 33 to 9.

The question surrounding Celtic is since they are so possession dominant in the Scottish Premier League, are they able to sit deep, defend and punish teams on the counter? The match against Real Madrid was a good barometer for Celtic, and they passed the test for a majority of the match. So, I have no doubt they will punish RB Leipzig on the counter.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

With all of the defensive issues, turnover in manager and players being injured, these are tough times for one the biggest clubs in Germany. RB Leipzig need to win this match to have any hope of surviving, but at -182 they are inflated against a really good Celtic team that is also desperate for a win.

I only have RB Leipzig projected at +148, so I think there is tremendous value on Celtic +1 at -106 (BetRivers).

The Pick: Celtic +1 (-106)