RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid Betting Prediction, Picks: Total Inflated For Champions League Fixture

RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid Betting Prediction, Picks: Total Inflated For Champions League Fixture article feature image

Anadolu Agency/Getty. Pictured: Eduardo Camavinga ad Amadou Haidara.

  • Real Madrid squares off with RB Leipzig in a crucial Champions League fixture.
  • Both squads are looking to book their spot in the ensuing round.
  • Read on for Nick Hennion's best bet.

RB Leipzig vs. Real Madrid Odds

RB Leipzig Odds+185
Real Madrid Odds+135
Over/Under2.5 (-160/ +115)
Day | TimeTuesday | 3 p.m. ET
How To WatchParamount+
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Seeking revenge for a 2-0 loss on Matchday 2, RB Leipzig welcomes Real Madrid to Germany on Tuesday.

Since that defeat, Leipzig have discovered good form in the Champions League. The German outfit won all three points in each match against Celtic, giving Leipzig six points for the group round and putting them second in the current standings.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid picked up four of six points against Shakhtar Donetsk to increase their point total to 10 in this group stage.

A point for Real Madrid in Germany will secure their place in the knockouts while a win will lock up Group F for the the reigning European champions.

RB Leipzig Looking Positive

Entering this fixture, Die Roten Bullen are a slight home positive regression candidate.

Through two home UCL matches, Leipzig have posted a -1 goal differential against a -0.71 expected goals on target (xGOT) differential and a +2 big scoring chances differential.

Include their domestic results in the sample and bettors will find Leipzig have conceded only 1.21 xGOT per 90 minutes in seven combined Bundesliga and Champions League home fixtures.

For the competition as a whole, Leipzig have come up particularly unlucky on the defensive end. In all four Champions League fixtures, manager Marco Rose's side has conceded seven goals against 5.4 xGOT, per fotmob.com.

Offensively, this side still needs to improve if it hopes to achieve a result on Tuesday. In all four UCL fixtures, Leipzig have generated only 1.47 xGOT per 90 minutes.

Real Madrid Over-Performing Again

For the second straight campaign, Real Madrid is over-performing in the Champions League group stage.

Through four UCL fixtures, Los Blancos have amassed a +6 goal differential against a +3.77 xGOT differential. Most of that over-performance can be attributed to the defensive end, where manager Carlo Ancelotti's side has conceded two goals against 3.77 xGOT and five big scoring chances, again per fotmob.com.

Just in their two road UCL matches, Real Madrid has conceded only one goal against 2.17 xGOT and three big scoring chances.

At the same time, Madrid have excelled on the offensive end. In those same four fixtures, the defending La Liga champions have scored eight goals against 7.46 xGOT and 12 big scoring chances. Away from home, it's four goals on 3.15 xGOT and six big scoring chances.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Is this a must-win spot for Leipzig? No.

Is it a must-not-lose spot? Almost certainly yes.

Personally, I expect that mentality to manifest itself on the defensive end, where Leipzig are a positive regression candidate entering this match. Plus, in the reverse fixture in Madrid, Leipzig limited a potent Real attack to only 1.47 xGOT and two big scoring chances.

At the same time, I don't expect the Madrid defense to surrender many chances. Although they are over-performing, Ancelotti's side has conceded only 0.94 xGOT per 90 minutes in the first four fixtures, including only 0.73 xGOT in the reverse fixture.

Add in that Madrid plays very well defensively on the road – only 0.86 xGA/90 minutes in eight combined La Liga and UCL fixtures – and I'll bet on a low-scoring affair.

The Pick: Total Under 2.75 Goals (-110 via DraftKings

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