Real Madrid (5-2) and Benfica (2-5) will face off today at 3:00 p.m. EST at Estadio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisbon, Portugal.
Real Madrid is favored at a -139 price, with the over/under set at 3.5 (+125o / -160u) goals.
Let's get into my Real Madrid vs. Benfica prediction.
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Prediction
Pick: Both Teams to Score — No
My Real Madrid vs. Benfica best bet is Both Teams to Score — No, with the best odds currently on bet365.
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Odds
| Real Madrid Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -150 | 3.5 +125o / -160u | -139 |
| Benfica Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +110 | 3.5 +125o / -160u | +333 |
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Pick
While a team with Real Madrid's offensive talent often suggests a high-scoring game, the value in this matchup lies in fading the expectation of goals from both sides. My top Real Madrid vs Benfica pick is built on Benfica's specific profile in European competition.
Their campaign has been defined by low-scoring, defensive contests, with their matches that average just 1.91 goals—the fewest in the entire Champions League this season. This is a direct result of an offense that has struggled immensely, averages a meager 0.86 goals per game, and created just 13 big chances in seven group stage matches.
Digging deeper, Benfica has consistently failed to score when priced as a significant underdog. In five matches where their moneyline odds were +300 or longer, they have been shut out every single time. They face similar odds here, which strongly suggests another difficult night for their attack.
On the other side, Real Madrid possesses one of the most fearsome attacks in Europe. They rank as the fourth-best offensive team in the competition with 2.7 goals per game and have generated the second-highest expected goals (xG) at 17.5. This offensive machine is led by Kylian Mbappé, who has scored an incredible 58% of the team's Champions League goals.
While Madrid’s defense has conceded 1.1 goals per game, Benfica's likely defensive posture and lack of attacking threat create a scenario where a win-to-nil for the visitors is a very plausible outcome. This makes the "Both Teams to Score – No" wager a compelling value pick.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — No
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Real Madrid | Draw | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | 19.7% | 22.2% |
Projected Total Goals
| Real Madrid | Total Goals | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 2.03 | 3.21 | 1.18 |
Real Madrid vs. Benfica Betting Analysis
The stakes could not be higher for this first-ever competitive meeting between the two historic clubs.
Real Madrid, currently third in the group standings, needs a result. A win would guarantee them a spot in the top eight for direct qualification to the last 16, but even a draw would likely be enough thanks to their goal difference.
For Benfica, the situation is far more desperate. They sit in 29th place and anything short of a victory will confirm their elimination from the Champions League. Even a win might not be enough, as they would still need other results to go their way.
History favors the Spanish giants in this cross-border clash. Real Madrid holds an impressive record against Portuguese opposition, with 14 wins, two draws, and just five losses in 21 games. Their continental form is also formidable; they have lost only three of their last 26 Champions League matches against non-English opponents.
They also return to the Estadio da Luz, the site of their famous 2014 Champions League final victory, which could provide a psychological edge.
Benfica, on the other hand, has a less favorable record against Spanish clubs, with just seven wins and 12 losses in 27 encounters. The club needs a massive performance to overcome a Real Madrid side that enters this match with a three-game win streak, a run that includes a 6-1 demolition of Monaco in their last European outing.
This Real Madrid vs Benfica prediction hinges on the massive gap in offensive quality and the high-pressure circumstances that will likely force Benfica into a conservative shell, which limits scoring chances for both sides, but especially for the hosts.
