Saturday MLS Betting Odds and Picks: Philadelphia vs. DC United, Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose (Aug. 29)

Philadelphia vs. DC United Odds

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Marquee matches galore are taking place Saturday across the Major League Soccer landscape, with several key games featured on the loaded card.

Highlighting the early part of the evening lineup is a big Eastern Conference showdown between Philadelphia and DC United.

Philadelphia, an MLS is Back tournament semifinalist, enters the match off a 1-0 victory against the New York Red Bulls on Wednesday at Subaru Park. The win stretched the Union’s unbeaten streak to six matches and it will try to make it seven in a row against a struggling opponent.

Things have not been as pretty for DC United, which heads north to Pennsylvania in the midst of a five-match winless skid. Manager Ben Olsen and his troops suffered a 2-1 home setback against New England on Wednesday, making this conference tilt even more important to the club.

Looking at the data, Philadelphia sits at 5.2 expected goals against 5.5 expected goals for a -0.30 xGDiff figure, along with a -0.10 xGDiff/90 minutes.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

On the other side, DC United slightly trails Philadelphia in the exact same categories (3.9 xGF/4.8 xGA = -0.9 xGDiff and -0.24 xGDiff/90) and that doesn’t bode well for the underdog.

After crunching the numbers and perusing the historical trends, I firmly landed on Philadelphia in this match. The Union are the better side and its form has held since that deep run at the midsummer showcase in Orlando.

Philadelphia, which has beaten DC United in their last six meetings, should be in full control of this match. Toss in the fact DC United hasn’t beaten its host in more than three years and I like Philadelphia’s chances to continue that dominant form in this spot.

The Bets: Philadelphia ML (+120); Total Under 3 Goals (-150) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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Los Angeles Galaxy vs. San Jose Odds

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Things are likely to get heated when San Jose battles Los Angeles in the latest chapter of the Cali Clasico, taking the spotlight in the West Coast fixtures.

Los Angeles comes into the match off a stunning 2-0 win against rival Los Angeles Football Club. The Galaxy, which shined throughout the contest, closed at north of plus-700 underdogs on the three-way money line and hopes to carry momentum from that win into this contest.

San Jose will be making its first appearance since the MLS restart after a run into the MLS is Back tournament knockout round. The Earthquakes were scheduled to face Portland on Wednesday, but the match was postponed.

These sides have a lengthy rivalry, meeting a whopping 70 times thus far in their respective storied histories. San Jose has had the upper hand as of late, going unbeaten in the last three meetings with Los Angeles.

With everything in mind, I am backing San Jose on the spread. The Earthquakes have had the Galaxy’s number and, top to bottom, they’re the better side. Play San Jose with confidence and sprinkle a little on the money line if you’re feeling a bit daring.

I am also playing the total going over the number. San Jose has scored three goals in the last three meetings and four of the last five confrontations have finished with at least three goals. If that number is too high, try to get 2.5 goals on a live wager early on the first half around -150 or less if possible.

The Bets: San Jose +0.5 (-155); Total Over 3 Goals (-148) [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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